BizJournals Portfolio
Jan 27 2010 3:21pm EDT

Davos Day One: Who Doesn't Love a Good Crisis?

We might not be in Davos, but that doesn’t mean we won’t weigh in. A roundup of what we see as the most interesting bits to come out of today’s official sessions (and a few unofficial ones) at the World Economic Forum:

In Debt up to Their Eyeballs

The economic elite gathered in Davos have plenty to be thankful for this year. After all, the world economy isn’t absolutely melting down around them like it was last year. So that’s a good thing. On the other hand, there’s plenty to worry about. And one of the biggest worries this year is sovereign debt—in other words, the debt countries like the U.S. and U.K. are piling up to try to spend their way out of the downturn. Actually, the worry isn’t so much the U.S. or U.K., Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff tells William L. Watts of MarketWatch. In those countries, debt is likely to be painful politically and perhaps economically, with inevitable belt-tightening on the way. But in emerging European economies, the International Monetary Fund might have to step in to keep countries from outright default. In case you’re wondering. That’s not such good news. After a debate over the matter, 50.7 percent of participants voting electronically chose government debt as their top concern. But billionaire George Soros, ever the contrarian, said it was too soon for governments to back away from debt-driven stimulus packages, Reuters reports. And he added that debt from Greece, one of the most imperiled nations, just might be worth buying since he’s certain Greece will do what it has to to stay in the Euro Zone.

Obama’s Friend and Foe

Is Soros a fan of Barack Obama’s plan to limit the size of U.S. banks? Depends on who is doing the interpreting. Says the New York Times headline: “Soros in Davos Endorses Obama’s Bank Plan.” Says the Wall Street Journal: “Soros Calls Obama Bank Plan ‘Premature.’” And the Times of London says: “Davos Soros: Obama Reform Plan Not Tough Enough.” The headlines are all different but there is a unifying message when you get into the stories: Soros, the billionaire investor, definitely believes the U.S. financial system needs serious reforms, and he’s generally inclined to support Obama over American bankers.

Big Banker Says Big Banks Are Just Fine

President Obama may be looking to cut the size of the nation’s biggest banks, saying "too big to fail" should be a thing of the past. But the head of one of the world’s too-big-to-fail banks says that’s just a lot of hooey. Big banks are just fine, says Barclays president Bob Dimond. And, not surprisingly, he says the president’s plan to limit bank size would hammer growth and hurt jobs recovery. There’s a reason for big banks, the U.K. Guardian reports Dimond as saying. "They [the big banks] fulfilled an important function in helping governments and corporates to transfer risk, particularly across borders," Diamond said. "Did banks get big because they wanted to, or were they following their clients, their customers, and the markets? Was it for an economic purpose?" Instead of shrinking banks, governments should do a better job regulating them, he said.

Where are the Fantastic Four When You Need Them?

Leave it to Nouriel Roubini to live up to his reputation as Doctor Doom. At a panel discussion with other economists, the New York University professor said labor conditions in the U.S. remained weak, and he said the government should be more concerned about reducing the deficit and the nation’s debt. In an interview with CNNMoney.com, Roubini warned about new asset bubbles. "There's a wall of liquidity chasing assets, and some of those assets are oil, energy, food, and gold," he told the website.

Roubini, Part Two: Greece Is ‘Obviously Bankrupt’

Roubini, famous for an early call on the subprime-credit collapse, says the endgame in Greece is quite clear. The country is bankrupt, and the stronger economies of Europe will be forced to bail it out. The government of Greece has insisted that it can resolve its economic crisis by cutting costs and that a bailout by other countries isn’t necessary. “Greece is bankrupt,” Roubini told CNBC.com. “Look, they have to ask China to help them out.” As Business Insider points out, the question for investors is whether Greek bonds, which have been hammered, are a good buy. If the fundamentals of the economy are good, they might be. But that is a big if.

Going 10 and 10

Fortune’s Adam Lashinsky (who until this week was a Davos virgin) notes that a theme is emerging already: concern over U.S. unemployment at 10 percent and 10 percent economic growth in China. “The two conditions are mutually exclusive, goes the concern, because continued economic weakness in the U.S., with the attendant cuts in consumption, inevitably will weigh on the growth of export-driven China,” Lashinsky notes.

First, Scold All the Bankers

Brazil’s populist president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva promised a group of 10,000 leftists at the World Social Forum that when he rubbed elbows with the rich and powerful at Davos, he’d also have a few choice words for them. Alan Clendenning of the Associated Press reports that the former radical union leader drew cheers from the crowd in Porto Alegre, Brazil, with a promise to head to Switzerland and scold the economic elite for causing the world’s economic mess. "The financial system can't parade itself as a good example, because it ended up provoking the biggest crisis in recent years," said Silva. He leaves for Davos Wednesday night, and while he might be in a mood to scold, the gathered world leaders plan to give Silva an award—the Global Statesmanship Award.

Has the World Learned Anything From the Financial Crisis?

No, it hasn’t. Duh. The bankers of the world are doubling up on risk, according to a Huffington Post report from Davos. The causes of the crisis remain in place. Interest rates are low, consumer debt is high, and banks are on a bender. The next crisis may be worse because the bailouts have created the impression that governments will bail out financial institutions that get into trouble. So we have to ask: Why did anyone even hope, let alone expect, that the world would emerge from the latest crisis a wiser and safer place?

Russian Businesses to World: We’re Serious

For those who think that Russian business is just about young, billionaire playboys who make their roll in commodities and blow it on expensive yachts and hookers, there’s a new message emerging from Davos: We’re serious! “It gives businessmen and officials an opportunity to fight prevailing negative stereotypes,” says former head of the IMF in Russia, professor Martin Gilman. We believe he’s referring to our own hooker assumption.


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