What Election Day 2009 Taught Us

Elections held during off years are always a bit surreal. Political operatives and reporters look for deep meanings in the results of a handful of races, trying to make some sweeping national conclusion about what the candidates said and how the voters acted. This year especially, the political chattering class will spend hours talking on the 24/7 cable TV news circuit or penning countless blog posts to discuss the damage President Obama might take because of Democratic losses on Tuesday.

Don't spend much time listening or reading the limitless amount of spin. If you were an Obama hater to begin with, the results will just fuel your belief that he'll be a one-term president. And if you're an Obama fan, you'll find every excuse possible to show your guy can't be blamed.

Here's all you really need to know about the Tuesday elections:

-- Carve it however you want to, voters are still scared to death about the economy. This from ABC News' polling director Gary Langer: "A vast 89 percent in New Jersey and 85 percent in Virginia said they were worried about the direction of the nation's economy in the next year; 56 percent and 53 percent, respectively, said they were "very" worried about it."

-- It's just not a safe time to be an incumbent. Just ask Jon Corzine, the defeated New Jersey governor and former Goldman Sachs CEO. He lost because of the dreadful economic conditions in his state and his attempt to raise taxes to solve the problem. Need another example? How about Mike Bloomberg, the billionaire New York City mayor who spent an estimated $100 million of his own money to win a third term. Pundits thought he'd win with a healthy double-digit lead, but he ended up squeaking to a victory.

-- Republicans who won did so by emphasizing the economy, not by campaigning on a social agenda. In Virginia, Republican winner Bob McDonnell rode to victory by keeping his message an economic one. But in upstate New York, where a special election was held to fill a vacant House seat, a Democrat won for the first time in a century after the Republican pulled out because her national party was putting its support behind a strong social conservative.

-- But even though Republican candidates won with a fiscal message, the culture wars show no sign of going away. Gay-marriage supporters lost a big battle in Maine, which will only fuel the passions on both sides.

That's a wrap for 2009. Now at least the pundits and the operatives have something real to focus on—the midterm elections for 2010.