Has Hirst's Bubble Burst?

On the very day that Lehman Brothers collapsed, Merrill Lynch was sold to Bank of America, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced its then-greatest single day loss ever, a solo auction of Damien Hirst works at Sotheby's London offices shattered presale estimates and almost all expectations.

Ringing up $199 million in sales with 218 out of 223 lots finding buyers, the event seemed to contradict everyone's worst fears about the fate of the market. Hirst was heralded crash-defying, and his work looked to be as popular (and valuable) as ever.

"I think the market is bigger than anyone knows,'' Hirst himself said that evening, in a message relayed by Sotheby's.

Oh, how woefully premature -- and utterly wrong -- that comment seems now.

Fast-forward three months to Art Basel Miami Beach, a fair that has become one of the most important art world events in the United States. New York art dealer Christoph Van de Weghe had eight works by Hirst for sale in his booth. He sold only two, and both below their asking price, Bloomberg reports.

And that's not an isolated incident. In November, during the string of modern and contemporary art auctions in New York, 11 out of 17 Hirst lots failed to find buyers.

Certainly, the slide in demand for Hirst's works reflects the state of the art market in general, as illuminated by the results at the bellwether November auctions.

Sales of Impressionist, contemporary, and modern works at Sotheby's, Christie's, and Phillips de Pury netted $666 million over two weeks, little more than half the combined low estimate of $1.2 billion for the auctions.

Paintings by Warhol, Bacon, Rothko, Manet, Matisse, and Monet failed to sell -- in short, artists much better than Damien Hirst could not hold their value, either.

But in addition to an overall market downturn, Hirst has an additional problem on his hands: the specter of a flooded market.

To capitalize on the past few boom years in the art market, Hirst's studio churned out works at a speed that many feared would overwhelm demand, pushing down prices further.

That ought to continue to vex collectors long after prices have recovered elsewhere.

by Liz Gunnison