Oil's Cassandra

Oil prices are now 50 percent off their July high and the main economic worry has long shifted away an energy crisis to a credit one. Yet T. Boone Pickens soldiers on with his Plan, still prophesying as vigorously as ever about the doomsday scenario posed by America's reliance on foreign oil.

At the Green Business Summit in Manhattan today, Pickens addressed a ballroom packed with alternative energy executives and investors -- a testament either to Pickens' unabated appeal, or just how much free time these guys have on their hands while waiting for credit markets to thaw.

Over pistachio-crusted halibut, the Texas oil magnate beat the drum for a dramatic and immediate shift to natural gas and wind power as energy sources, coupled with continued investment in biofuels, solar power, hydropower, and the like.

The Pickens Plan is based less around environmental concerns than the huge economic drain and a national security risk posed by importing nearly 70 percent of our oil.

He argues for ramping up the use of domestically produced natural gas as a "bridge" to cleaner technologies like fuel cells, which are not currently well enough developed to lead to a major reduction in oil imports.

And by Pickens' calculations, immediate action is a "need" rather than a "want." He announced with some conviction that crude oil would reach $300 per barrel in 2018 if we continued in our current habits -- a target that many economists find alarming if not outright disputable.

Ken Deffayes, an oil expert and Princeton geology professor emeritus, believes that oil could only feasibly go a high as $200 per barrel, or 20 percent of the world economy, without causing a major global economic crisis.

"If we see oil at $300 per barrel, we will be looking out over the smoldering ruins of the world's economy," says Deffayes.

As for Pickens' political leanings, while he's a lifelong Republican, he splits his disdain equally between McCain and Obama when it comes to their energy policies.

Indeed, at the meeting, organized by the law firm Chadbourne & Parke, Pickens didn't seem very impressed with any of the nation's leaders today when he characterized former New York Governor George Pataki as the only politician in America who understands the energy question.

Now that's scary.

Liz Gunnison