In Investing, Booze, You Lose

As gloomy markets settle in for what may be a long spell, every blogger and armchair analyst is looking for "recession-proof" investments. Here's one oft-repeated theory: In times of economic hardship, sales of alcohol increase.

If true, that would seem to make beer and liquor stocks a safe haven. Will the nation drink its way through the recession?

"That sales volumes increase during economic downturns is a common misperception that bares no resemblance to the truth," says David Ozgo, senior vice president of economic and strategy analysis for the Distilled Spirits Council, an industry trade group.

According to the Distilled Spirits Council, while the wine and spirits category manages to stay relatively stable in recessions, it's not entirely immune to the slowdown. In fact, Ozgo sees the growth in sales volume for the category as falling to 1.9 percent in 2008 from an average growth of 2.9 percent in 2000-2006.

Beer may be cheaper, but Americans don't seem to pound down them when times turn hard. According to the Beer Institute, per capita beer consumption in the United States has hovered between 21.4 and 21.8 gallons annually since 1995, with no noticeable fluctuations as a result of economic conditions.

At least in recent times, the confusion about liquor sales may come from looking at revenues rather than volumes.

Ozgo says that though volume sales may slow, a recent "trading up" trend accounts for growing revenues as customers continue to move from value and premium spirits to high-end premium and super-premium offerings.

The 2001 downturn was the first time that consumers continued buying the high-end offerings unabated, and things are shaping up similarly this time around.

Still, at least so far, many of you who put aside your moral qualms about buying into the alcoholic beverage category have not been rewarded; major players like Diageo, Pernod-Ricard, and Anheuser-Busch have not significantly outperformed the S&P 500 in the past year.

And remember FocusShares' SINdex? The ETF that gives investors exposure to "sin-dustries" like gambling, alcohol, and tobacco?

It's essentially tracking the S&P 500, down 10 percent since the beginning of the year.

So, as it turns out, sin is not so in. But if you're looking for something that stretches the bounds of your conscience: "terror stocks" are hot right now.

Liz Gunnison

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