From MacWorld: The Hype Machine in Full Throttle

On the eve of Steve Jobs's MacWorld 2008 keynote speech, the Moscone Center in San Francisco was buzzing with activity as some of the 50,000 expected Apple addicts and 1,000 reporters and bloggers began picking up their convention credentials, while exhibitors put the finishing touches on their displays.

Geeks of every size, shape, and color were hustling around downtown San Francisco brandishing their new creds under a steely Bay Area sky, with a nip of a chill in the air. Many of the top tech bloggers were expected at the Gizmodo/Ars Technica kickoff party at the club Harlot tonight. Who's bringing the TV-B-Gone?

But Apple watchers were buzzing for another reason as well. Earlier today, someone posted what was purported to be Steve Jobs' keynote speech notes on Wikipedia. An Apple spokesperson could not confirm the authenticity of the notes, but if they were phony, the hoaxer did a good job of stirring up a kerfuffle. (Techcrunch's Erick Schonfeld called the notes "bunk" - and I can't help but agree with him.)

Luckily, we only have to wait about 18 hours to see if the notes were real or not.

"Leaked" keynote notwithstanding, Apple watchers are looking for a few specific announcements, starting with a new super-thin MacBook - some have dubbed it the MacBook "Air" - possibly with flash memory. Attendees also expect to learn about an alliance with the major movie studios to launch an iTunes movie rental service. Slightly more far fetched are the rumors which circulated a few weeks ago suggesting that rapper cum music mogul Jay-Z would launch an Apple record label.

There is speculation that Apple will upgrade the iPhone to the faster 3G network, but most observers (including yours truly) don't believe this will happen until the second half of 2008.

Jobs is also expected to tout what RBC Capital's Mike Abramsky called Apple's "ginormous" holiday sales, based on "store checks and customer surveys." Abramsky raised his estimate for last quarter's Mac sales to a colossal 2.5 million units - beating the old record, 2.2 million units, set in the previous quarter.

Given how hot Apple is right now - its share price is threatening to breach $200 - anticipation is certainly running high this year. Still, it seems unlikely that Jobs will be able to match the frenzy that accompanied last year's announcement of the iPhone, which has been wildly successful. (Other major MacWorld announcements included the 2006 launch of the Intel Core Duo processor and the 2005 unveiling of the iPod Shuffle and Mac Mini.)

"Given continued lofty expectations for Apple, even after last week's tech sell-off, we believe that Apple will be range-bound with downside risk near-term," Keith Bachman of BMO Capital Markets wrote in a Jan. 8 note to clients cited by Dow Jones Newswires.

"We don't think MacWorld will have the same 'wow' factor as recent years," Bachman added.

Still, Jobs has a knack for pulling the proverbial rabbit out of the hat - even amid sky-high expectations - so it would be foolhardy to underestimate him.

Stay tuned for on-the-scene updates as they happen from Jobs' keynote.

by Sam Gustin