Just how bad will this holiday season be for retailers? The outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray & Christmas crunches the pre-season hiring numbers to arrive at this conclusion: it's going to be ugly.

According to initial figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, retailers added just 71,700 jobs in October. That's half the number they hired last October, and lower even than October 2001, when they made jobs for 95,700 workers in the month after the terrorist attacks.

October's figure may well rise after the government's number crunchers process more data and revise their statistics. But with consumer confidence at a two-year low and worries of an economic recession gripping consumers, it's unlikely to change much. Retailers are bracing for the worst.

The bulk of the holiday hiring happens in November, and chief executive John Challenger notes that stores could add 300,000 to 350,000 staffers this month. "Anything less than 300,000 new jobs would be a sure sign that retailers consider this year an absolute bust," he said.

Other market researchers aren't so pessimistic about the upcoming holiday season, however. Recent research from Forrester paints a rosy picture for online shopping this season: it expects sales will rise by a healthy 21 percent to $33 billion.

But in September, the National Retail Federation released its forecast for the holiday season that shows total sales rising by 4 percent this year, which is below the ten-year average of 4.8 percent. "Retailers are in for a somewhat challenging holiday season as consumers are faced with numerous economic obstacles," N.R.F. chief economist Rosalind Wells said. "With the weak housing market and current credit crunch, consumers will be forced to be more prudent with their holiday spending."

by Megan Barnett