And the Consensus Is? Uncertainty.

It will probably be months, if not years, before we know the full impact the housing slowdown and tightening credit market will have on global economies. But even at this early stage, the researchers are starting to try and tally the damage. And so far, the conjecture remains just that. Conjecture.

The National Association for Business Economics took its quarterly pulse of the state of business conditions from its corporate members. The respondents reported slower growth, but growth nonetheless. They overwhelmingly (98 percent) believe the housing market will continue to slow, and 54 percent believe the further slowdown will be substantial.

So far, the impact of the credit market has not been so bad on U.S. businesses, according to their poll. Just 36 percent of businesses, mostly in the financial and "goods-producing" sectors, said that the credit crisis has hurt their operations.

Despite the slower growth, most companies expect to continue spending on capital goods and employment. They also are still optimistic, although less so than they were in July, that the U.S. economy will continue to expand during the second half of this year. In July, 62 percent of the respondents predicted GDP growth between two and three percent. By October, many of those had downgraded their forecast, as a majority of respondents (52 percent) put the growth at zero to two percent.

On the global front, the impact is even less certain.

Rodrigo de Rato, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, told members that while developing countries have so far weathered the credit storm well, their growth could be stifled by a prolonged slowdown in housing and credit markets. (Like the one the N.A.B.E. members are predicting, perhaps?)

"Like most earthquakes, it has been something distant for most people, something they read about in the newspapers," de Rato said. "But there is still a risk of aftershocks, and the full effects of the disruption we have already had will only be felt over time." He said the IMF forecasts a slowdown but not a recession in the U.S.

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Governor Randall Kroszner tried to allay fears in a speech before a group of international bankers. He said the central bank will do whatever it takes to minimize the damage the credit markets will have on the economy.

by Megan Barnett