Spring might be arriving late in New York, but Bonus Rumor Season has started early for investment banking analysts. Compensation numbers are already circulating through bullpens up and down The Street, and so far best guesses have the top first-years finally breaking the six-digit barrier.

And that's just the bonus. Tack on base salaries of $60,000 to $80,000 to calculate what the kids are taking home in their first three years out of college these days.

The analysts' sources are admittedly dubious, but the buzz is consistent. The most prevalent Wall Street whispers, as passed around in (what else?) an Excel spreadsheet: Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch lead the pack with top-bucket bonuses of $110,000 for first year analysts, $130,000 for second years, and $155,000 for third years. Bear Stearns, Citigroup, J.P. Morgan Chase, and Morgan Stanley fill out the middle, ranging by tenure from $100,000 to $145,000. Piper Jaffray and Wachovia bring up the rear with a paltry $90,000 to $130,000 in analyst bonus offerings.

None of the banks reached on Tuesday afternoon agreed to comment on their compensation practices, natch. The annual analyst gossip mill has always been regarded as purely speculative and unofficial until the actual payout, which for most banks will be in late July or early August.

How accurate are the early rumors? Sources at Citigroup and Morgan Stanley say while they don't put too much stock in the individual firm figures, in the past the average has been spot on. "It's probably a decent directional indication of where The Street will be going as a whole," says an analyst at Morgan Stanley. "The rumor spreadsheets that went around this time last year were almost dead on the top bucket bonus numbers," concurs a source within UBS Investment Banking.

Over the past few years, bonus figures have been pushing skyward at a feverish rate. If this year's rumored numbers are on target, Morgan Stanley will have increased bonus comp for top first years by steady intervals from $30,000 to $100,000 in four years' time. A source within Citigroup says that bonuses on Greenwich Street have been following the same trajectory.

Record profits on Wall Street may contribute to all the wallet padding of late, but that's not the main driver. It's common knowledge amongst analysts that they have private equity firms and hedge funds to thank for the windfall--both of which have become increasingly aggressive in poaching analysts from bulge bracket firms.

The big surprise in the early stages of this year's rumor mill is to see Goldman Sachs at the top of the comp list. Traditionally, riding on their prestige has allowed the firm to get away with lower-end bonuses for analysts. Should the gossip prove accurate, a source at Citigroup has a few theories as to their changing tune. "Goldman is the first to be poached by P.E. and hedgies, and they are going to need to pay more to keep talent," says the analyst in an email. "Either that or because the press made such a hullabaloo about how much GS bigwigs took home last year that they had to show at least a LITTLE trickle down."

So far, the chatter yields no indication that all the belt-tightening going on at Citigroup will effect the investment banking division. "I wonder if Citi's laying off any investment bankers among the 17,000 [layoffs]," muses an analyst at Morgan Stanley. "No, probably just their support services. A sad story for the first-year analyst that now will have to bind his own books."

Ahh. The season has only just begun.

by Liz Gunnison

Gordon Gekko photograph from the Everett Collection.