The Republicans Get a Mulligan

As with life, one of the great things about politics is its sheer unpredictability. In just a few days we've had the spectacular end of the Democratic convention, John McCain's nomination of Sarah Palin to be vice president, and Hurricane Gustav causing Republicans to rearrange their plans.

My guess is that the Gustav landfall, tragic for those affected, sad for the country, will nevertheless produce political benefits for the Republicans. They're likely to be pretty short-lived benefits, but benefits nonetheless.

First, Gustav diminishes the G.O.P. convention in St. Paul at a time when the Republican brand is in shambles. If George W. Bush doesn't address the convention, or if he does so in a way that's overshadowed by Gustav, that's clearly good for John McCain. The McCain team is taking each day as it comes. Right now Monday's opening day will be bare bones, just enough to abide by party rules to open a convention and begin selecting a nominee. Without a parade of unpopular faces marching across the screen, McCain is clearly better off.

Second, whatever the federal response to Gustav is, it's bound to be better than its response to Katrina three years ago. Already, there's much more coordinating between the federal, state and local governments involved. The Federal Emergency Management Agency is in more capable hands, and, most importantly, Bush will not be caught looking disengaged.

In essence, the Republicans have been handed a mulligan, a do over and they're likely to come through looking better than last time. By the end of the week, reporters may be asking why McCain didn't select Louisiana governor Bobby Jindal as veep. Yes, he was elected governor less than a year ago, but with time in Congress and as executive director of the president's Medicare commission, the 36-year-old may look like a statesman and a reformer compared to Palin. In any event, a chance to do over Katrina can't hurt the G.O.P.

Finally, the setting gets to show the Republicans engaged in some exercise of action and compassion. McCain being in the Gulf Coast, talking to local officials certainly makes for a better image than hobnobbing with unpopular Republicans in St. Paul. And the whole scene allows Palin to look like a commander. Of course, it's all optics. But optics count.

I'm slightly amazed that the Democrats are not pounding McCain for where he was with Bush when Katrina hit—in San Diego, celebrating McCain's 69th birthday. The picture of them whooping it up while the levees broke is making the round on lefty blogs, but I'm pretty surprised that the Obama campaign hasn't put it front and center. I'm not sure Obama was rushing to plug the dykes that day either, but at least he wasn't with Bush.

Anyway, politics is filled with irony: Another Katrina in at the mouth of the Mississippi river and up north, where the continent's longest river begins, the Republicans get another shot to salvage something from their deepest shame.

Matt Cooper

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