The Mellencamp Election

Don't underestimate what happened last night. Barack Obama has a problem. He spent weeks in Pennsylvania and more money there than anyone in the state's history, perhaps a fifth of what Obama has spent on TV nationally since this race began went into Pennsylvania alone and he blew it. Big time.

Each time he's had a chance to deliver a death blow to Clinton--New Hampshire, Nevada, Super Tuesday, Texas and Ohio--he's blown it. I still think he'll be the nominee but he'll never again have the same aura of invincibility he once had. It's not a stretch at all to see McCain being inaugurated in January 2009.

I haven't had a chance to go through the county by county results yet but it looks like Clinton's huge numbers in Allegheny, out near Pittsburgh, and surprising strength in the Philadelphia suburbs suggests she's doing more than just picking up working class whites. She seems to be nursing larger doubts about Obama. My spouse, as I always feel duty bound to note, works for Clinton.

Now all eyes are on Indiana. Clinton almost certainly can't win North Carolina on May 6 with its large African-American population. But Indiana is an authentic battleground. It has plenty of working class whites who are Clinton's base but a good-sized African American population and proximity to Illinois. It's easy for Chicagoans to flood northern Indiana. If Clinton wins here, Obama's really got some 'splaining to do. Because then she goes on to Kentucky and West Virginia which she should win handily. Yes, the delegate math still favors Obama but the psychology won't if he can't beat her in Indiana.

Cue the Mellencamp. I noticed Johnny Cougar, as he was once known, showed up at the Evansville rally for Obama. (Although why they left him off stage while Obama stood in front of three meatheads wearing Abercrombie & Fitch t shirts is beyond me.) Hillary stayed behind in Philly but ended her speech to the tune of Mellencamp/Chevy's "This is Our Country." Indiana looks like another Democratic train wreck so its appropriate that the only winner might be Mellencamp.

PHOTO CAPTION: John Mellencamp plays at a Pennsylvania primary election night rally for Senator Barack Obama held at Roberts Municipal Stadium in Evansville, Indiana. Indiana holdS one of the next Democratic primary elections on May 6. Credit: Jeff Haynes/Reuters /Landov

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