The Coalitions Form

Giuliani and Duncan Hunter are neck and neck. (Ron Paul keeps doubling and quadrupling Giuliani's totals.)

John Edwards is entering Kucinich territory, pulling a miniscule vote in Nevada.

The coalitions are forming. The outlines of the race, once a free for all, are now in view. And it's now, most likely, like the NFL, down to four teams: McCain, Romney, Clinton, Obama. I don't see Edwards or Huckabee coming back in a serious way.

Start with the Democrats where, I always note, my spouse works for Clinton.

It's not just Clinton's win tonight that's a big deal. It's how she won.

She put together a coalition of working-class whites and beat Obama among Hispanics 3-1. She now looks much more competitive in a number of states where she was in trouble: Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado and, especially, California. I'm willing to predict that the winner of California will take the Democratic nomination. It's not only the biggest prize. It's the state where both Obama and Clinton can play hard.

Does Obama have an Hispanic problem? Clearly. Back in Illinois, he obviously won overwhelming Hispanic support--against Alan Keyes. But if Hispanics are wary of Obama, either because of black-brown tensions or affection for the Clintons or whatevever, then it's tough for him to get the nomination with affluent whites and youth. Obama's coalition needs to expand beyond African Americans and affluent whites and the young or he'll go the way of all the reform candidates of the past--Gary Hart, Bill Bradley, Paul Tsongas.

The collapse of John Edwards is good news for Clinton. Sure, he and his campaign team can't stand the Clintons. But his voters--downscale and lilly white--are gravitating to Clinton. He'll stay in the race, but it's hard to see how he's going to be much of a factor after South Carolina.

Clinton's coalition isn't solid yet. More mistakes like the drivers licenses for illegals mess that led to her collapse in the polls a few weeks ago and the doubts about her could coalesce again. The youth and independent surge that Obama got in Iowa could come back. But there was no youth surge in Nevada and he needs to get that back. Whoever wins the Democratic nomination, especially if it's Clinton, is going to need to heal the black-brown split.

On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee is starting to look more like a one-shot wonder. South Carolina, with its plethora of religious conservatives, should have been an ideal state for Huckabee. Now he has to move to states with huge media markets, where Huckabee will have a harder time playing with minimal money. McCain and Romney, though, are showing they can win Republican primaries with a broader coalition of economic, defense and religious conservatives.

Florida will clarify it some more. It's now hard to see how Giuliani can come back. Yes, he didn't play in these other states. But he should have gotten more than the miniscule support of fringe candidates. Much of the appeal of Rudy was that he looked like a winner. Now he's got the loser stink and there's no way to get it off.

Next week's debates will be really interesting. Edwards, I bet, makes a last big pitch on trade to appeal to South Carolina. If you're on the Obama team, you have to think you went to soft on Clinton in Vegas and it's time to crank up the criticism. And if you're Clinton, you keep on doing what you're doing.

As for the Republicans, the McCain-Huckabee fight will grow more intense and Romney and McCain. Romney is on a good trajectory. His Michigan win helped cement the notion that he's an economic Mr. Fix It and less as Mr. Pander while McCain has yet to come up with a compelling economic message.

It's going to be very interesting.