The Recession Election

There are several obvious story lines out of Michigan tonight. There's the muddle of the GOP race now that Mitt Romney has won his home state--this after Huckabee took Iowa and McCain took New Hampshire. Will Thompson take South Carolina and Giuliani Florida for a total scrum? There's the story of native son Romney pulling it out in the state that made his father governor twice. There's the story of John McCain who can win with Democrats and Independents but can't close the deal with Republicans.

But the larger story is this: We're heading into a recession. People want a president who'll fix the economy. A few weeks ago, Republican candidates, with the exception of Mike Huckabee, were cheering the Bush economy. Now, they know it's going in the crapper and they don't have be in Michigan to see it. Democrats were obsessed with Fallujah and Baghdad and were appalled at Bush deficits. Now they want big stimulus packages to keep the economy from tanking. It's fitting that Michigan came the same day as the say Citigroup earnings report and Wall Street selloff. The collapse of Citigroup stock, the continuing write downs on Wall Street, the looming credit card crisis--you don't have to be a perennial bear to be worried.

These conditions are good for Romney, the Harvard MBA and Bain Capital founder. He may not have a populist edge like Huckabee but he has a story to tell: I know how economies work. I've fixed ailing businesses and the Olympics. I can fix, as Gordon Gekko said of Greed, "you mark my words - will not only save the faltering American business economy; it will save that other malfunctioning corporation we call the USA." In this kind of atmosphere, Romney's reversals on immigration and abortion and, oh, just about anything else won't matter so much. He dominated the economic vote in Michigan, according to the exit polls.

On the Democratic side, the fact that Clinton--for whom my spouse works--is winning working class voters while Obama does better with the affluent suggests that she's better positioned for a tanking economy. Unity and hope and reform and comity and history---the staples of the Obama mantra-- may sell better in good time than bad.

Maybe in a few days we'll be talking about Fred Thompson's mantra as the real conservative. Maybe Huckabee's tent revival populism will sell. Maybe McCain will come back. Maybe Giuliani will just enjoy this demolition derby even if he keeps coming in behind Ron Paul.

But the enduring issue is the economy and the candidate who has a compelling economic message like Reagan in '80 or Clinton in '92 will be sworn in on January 20, 2009.