The Road From Here

It's perfect that Rudy had a security scare at his Florida event today. I don't mean to make light of anything that might harm public safety but you do get the feeling that about the only way for Giuliani to get back in the race is to walk through danger again like he did on 9/11.

Here's the race as I see it at the moment, but since everyone has been wrong about everything, including me, take it with a caveat.

Obama. Still very much in the hunt. I can see him winning SC and NV, now that he has the endorsement of the Culinary Workers and that would give him a very nice run going into February 5 where a lot of states look good for him--Illinois, of course, but also the western states and midwest and African-American heavy South.

Clinton. In a good place after last night but now has to compete in the states between now and February 5 and try to make a good showing in Florida where the Dems have vowed not to campaign because it moved its primary forward in violation of DNC rules. FL is a perfect Clinton state--older, filled with New Yorkers, and Hispanics who could be a key target here.

Edwards. I can't figure out where he's going to win a state in the next few weeks but with money in the bank, he can afford to hang on. A second place finish in his borth state of South Carolina would help a lot.

Richardson. He's vowing to make a stand out West but it's hard to see him prevailing in any state except his native New Mexico.

McCain. In very good shape. If he can knock Romney off in Michigan and Huckabee in South Carolina, he's on his way. If Romney couldn't carry New Hampshire, it's hard to see him taking Michigan despite his ties to the State. Kudos to the consultants and staff who stuck by McCain when times turned lean. A few actually bolted to rival operations when McCain couldn't keep their checks coming. You know who you are.

Romney. With plenty of cash, he can hang on as long as he wants but it's hard to see where he rallies and gets back in the race.

Huckabee. I think he's still very much in the hunt. South Carolina is a good state for him and he can stay sunny while Romney beats up on McCain. Beating McCain in South Carolina would set him up nicely for February 5.

Giuliani. The outlier strategy, born of a crappy performance in the early states, gives him a chance to get going later if McCain has a bad moment--something that makes him seem senile--and in the liklihood that Romney and McCain falter. But at some point he has to stop coming in the back of the pack near Ron Paul.

Paul. I thought he'd do even better. With tons of money and a clear Adam Smith message he can stay in this and consider Third Party, even though he's said he wouldn't.

Thompson. Stick a fork in it. He'll try to rally in SC but I don't see it.

Time to start paying attention to superdelegates, party rules and conventions. We may yet have a contested convention.