Why McCain Won-and Why He Can Sill Blow It

John McCain's strong victory in New Hampshire seemed to be based on two things, according to the exit polls. There were his personal qualities and the surge of independents. Voters didn't agree with McCain on issues like immigration but they liked him. So this does not bode well for the many states where independents can't vote. And on issue after issue, Republican voters don't agree with McCain, most notably immigration. I could easily see Huckabee winning in South Carolina and Romney, perhaps, coming back in Michigan. Giuliani might yet make a stand although he should have fared better in a state where the Republicans are pro-choice, by and large, and where he spent a lot of time. Now, McCain does have establishment support in South Carolina which could help him. Lindsey Graham and Mark Sanford were young congressmen in 2000. Not they are the senior senator and the governor, respectively. That's good support to have.

But let's say that this is the beginning of a McCain roll, is the country really about to elect a 70-year-old war supporter? It's entirely possible. McCain reasserting the maverick role gives him a real chance to carry states that Bush couldn't. I could see McCain winning in Maine, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Michigan and Pennsylvania. I think he could be very competitive.

If I was Mitt Romney, I'd sit tight for Michigan and see how this plays out in South Carolina and if I was Rudy Giuliani, I'd keep my powder dry. As for Fred Thompson, he's barely coming in ahead of Duncan Hunter. It's tempting for Thompson to stay in while this race is so muddled but it's hard to see where he's going to win.

In the coming days, I'd keep an eye on McCain's money. Can Mr. Surge get the surge of cash that he needs. Can Huckabee find a place to compete if he were to lose South Carolina and can he get the money he needs?

Eight years ago, McCain came soaring out of New Hampshire and he still managed to blow it. This time he has an easier road. He's not the enemy of the establishment the way he was back then. But blow it again he could. The immigration issue could still bring him down in many states, including Texas and California.

Political reporters have dreamed of the possibility of a brokered convention. The Republican race thus far seems more likely to bring that result than any primaries since 1976 when Ronald Reagan almost wrested the nomination from President Gerald Ford.