Obama Expectations

At this point, expectations for Obama are so high that anything less than a victory the size of Iowa is going to feel less-than-momentous. But that said, the crowds are so big for Obama and the energy is so strong, that he could well blow her out of the water by double digits. We don't know. I think her emotional moment yesterday probably helpeed on balance. It brought the focus back to her. It gave her a decent sound bite. And since no one doubts her strength, it doesn't really make her look week the way Former Colorado Rep. Pat Schroeder's tears did at the outset of her aborted 1988 bid to become president. But now it's very hard to see where Clinton can make a stand against Obama. The Culinary Workers local 226, the most important union in Nevada, is going to endorse Obama tomorrow. I wrote about how they were kingmakers last year. Now they're likely to put Nevada out of play for Clinton even though she had a great organization there and it seemed like her best state among the early contests. South Carolina is a great state for Obama with its large African-American population and even larger black voting vloc in the Democratic primary, plus it's John Edwards home state and a place he could do pretty well. So that leaves Hillary Clinton, for whom my spouse works, looking at primaries in California, New York, New Jersey and Arkansas on February 5 while Obama could fare better in the mountain west that day. Victories there could get her delegate totals up. But between now and then, without a victory, there are bound to be calls to get out of the race and nervous donors and waivering pols who will endorse Obama. About the only thing Clinton has at this point is that expectations are so high for Obama that any falter on his part will be seen as a big deal. That's not much to lead on, especially considering where clinton was two months ago.