What now?

At the 67th precinct in Des Moines tonight, Obama rocked. The precinct was supposed to be a good one for Edwards. The state's governor, Chet Culver, was going to vote there and his wife has endorsed Edwards. It was said to be good for Hillary, too. Obama's people came in and won 267 votes to 109 for Hillary and 80 for Edwards. The Obama voters were younger and they were new. The 471 voters in the precinct was almost twice the number that showed up in 2004. And so it was everywhere in Iowa.

Where do we go from here? Obviously, it was a rough night for Clinton and Romney and great for Obama and Huckabee. New Hampshire could put the brakes on their ride, especially for Huckabee where McCain and a neighboring Romney could outpoll the Huck. Clinton will have a hard time holding New Hampshire and South Carolina now feels like a goner. African Americans will surely come to Barack in big enough numbers there to keep him over the top. Clinton's best shot for a victory in coming days is Nevada on January, but its caucuses may not get the attention needed to stop Obama. Clinton can come back but it just got much, much harder. This was not the muddled result the chattering classes expected. It was a blowout for Obama and Huckabee.

Some other thoughts:

The Experience Argument. Clinton's argument that Obama is untested and lacking experience is not working. She needs a new argument about why he's shouldn't be president. I don't know what that is, but simply taking shots at his inexperience was not enough in Iowa and it won't be in New Hampshire. The good news for Clinton--for whom my spouse works--is that Obama will get more scrutiny in the coming days. There will be a moment of Obama doubt. But it may come too late for her.

Can Edwards stay in it? Maybe. He can make an argument that he's the Obama alternative and not Clinton. On the other hand, he did poorly in New Hampshire in 2000 and it's hard to see him getting the money and momentum to do well there next week.

Is Romney Dead? Not if he wins New Hampshire. Then he's back on top but winning there now looks much, much harder. The media hates Romney, thinks he's a phony.

McCain, last man standing? Here's a scenario: McCain wins New Hampshire and then McCain and Huckabee showdown in South Carolina where anything could happen but where McCain could vindicate his 2000 loss to George W. Bush.

What Huckabee Achieved. He pushed back on the basic pillars of Republicanism. He raised taxes. He's not a government cutter. He favored the Bush immigration plan, more or less. He says nice things about the Clinton. In tone and substance, Huckabee is the biggest shift in Republicanism since Reagan in 1980.

What Obama Achieved. He took on the biggest Democratic machine since Mondale and he won. He played by the old rules, for all of his change talk. He raised the money, unlike Huckabee. He built the infrastructure. He went after Clinton on her terms and he came up the better for it.

In the coming days, the scrutiny and second looks will begin. Do we really want a national sales tax like Huckabee wants? What past positions has Obama taken that Clinton can work with?

Can Rudy Giuliani get back in the race? It gets harder to imagine at this point.

What an awful night for unions! Obama had virtually no union support in Iowa. Hillary had the most. A lot of good that did.