BizJournals Portfolio
Dec 27 2007 12:00am EDT

The Terror Caucuses

Gruesome as it sounds the Bhutto assassination could have an effect on the Iowa caucuses. Conventional wisdom would dictate that Giuliani, with his 9/11 cred, and Hillary with her more hawkish tone would be the beneficiaries of the carnage in Rawalpindi. But who knows if Iowa's dovish voters see Obama's I-am-the-world message as a better buffer against a world spinning out of control. Maybe Iowa evangelicals see Mike Huckabee as having the moral strength to deal with such a moment. Who knows? I just wouldn't count on this A. moving that many votes and B. necessarily moving them in the hawkish direction that you might think. But the events in Pakistan may play out through Iowa and New Hampshire. Could Musharraf be overthrown in the coming days? Will other opposition leaders be shot? For Pakistan, this is the equivalent of the Kennedy assassination. For us, the answers are less clear.


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