The Conventional Wisdom is Wrong

Since the Federal Election Commission's quarterly reports deadline on June 30, everyone in politics has been buzzing about the Democratic lead raising money. The Wall Street Journal weighs in late today with a roundup piece about what everyone knows. The piece raises some important caveats. Money doesn't always matter. Republicans outraised Democrats in 2006 and look how that turned out. But the real issue is that Republican money is still on the sidelines. Party contributors may be demoralized, reluctant and skeptical of the candidates in the field but it's not as if they went broke. Like investors keeping their money on the sidelines, a lot of Republicans are keeping their powder dry. I suspect when the Republicans settle on a nominee and someone who they despise--Clinton, Obama, Edwards or one of the also-rans--is the nominee, the GOP fundraising machine will kick into gear. Odds are that Democrats will still prevail but the idea Republicans are doomed on the money side is naive. As the columnist E.J. Dionne once said about the Democrats themselves: "They Only Look Dead."