Will Scooter Libby Be Pardoned?

Will Scooter Libby be pardoned? No one knows, but my guess is that he won't.

My own role in the case is well known--one of the counts of Libby's conviction involves his lying to federal officials about his conversaiton with me.

But my conjecture has less to do than my 15 minutes in the spotlight and more about the political landscape that challenges Libby and his able legal team, led by Ted Wells at Paul, Weiss.

First, while the president is given sole discretion to offer pardons, the political reality is that the Department of Justice plays a huge role. Bill Clinton, you'll recall, got in deep hot water at the end of his presidency for the pardons he doled out, most notably to Marc Rich, the fugitive financier.

"Main Justice", as it's called, had argued against such a pardon and Clinton was pummeled for seeming to help a friend over good policy. Ironically, Rich's lawyer was Scooter Libby.

Today the Bush Justice Department is under heavy scrutiny for bein g politicized, thanks to the firing of eight (or nine, depending on how you count it) U.S. Attorneys.

If Main Justice rules against a Libby pardon--and acccording to the Department's own guidelines they should, in part because he's shown no remorse--then Bush is in an exceedingly difficult political position if he pardons Libby.

If he does it now, he not only earns even more rath from careerists at D.O.J. and the press corps, but also from the Democrats, emboldened with gavels and subpoena power, who will surely make a stink of any pardon. Without a D.O.J. scandal and an utterly beleaguered Attorney General Gonzales, Bush might offer up a pardon. With that albatross, I don't think he will.

The other thing you have to consider is Bush's stingyness with pardons. he's given out fewer than any postwar president. He's just not inclined to give them.

Back in 2000, the political commentator Tucker Carlson, wrote a much noticed piece for the now deunct Talk magazine about Bush. It was a fairly sympathetic profile but in one of the scenes, Bush discusses the case of Karla Faye Tucker, a death row inmate whom Christian conservatives championed after she became born again. They argued strenuously for Bush to commute her death sentence. Tucker Carlson caught this scene:

In the weeks before the execution, Bush says, a number of protesters came to Austin to demand clemency for Karla Faye Tucker. "Did you meet with any of them?" I ask. Bush whips around and stares at me. "No, I didn't meet with any of them", he snaps, as though I've just asked the dumbest, most offensive question ever posed. "I didn't meet with Larry King either when he came down for it. I watched his interview with Tucker, though. He asked her real difficult questions like, 'What would you say to Governor Bush?'" "What was her answer?" I wonder. "'Please,'" Bush whimpers, his lips pursed in mock desperation, "'don't kill me.'" I must look shocked -- ridiculing the pleas of a condemned prisoner who has since been executed seems odd and cruel -- because he immediately stops smirking.

Bush denied that he was mocking the woman on death row. Yeah, right.

My guess is that Bush, despite the entreaties of those who know and admire Scooter Libby, including the Vice President, will allow Libby to serve his full 30 month sentence, perhaps beginning as soon as this summer. Unfortunately for Libby, Bush's not a pardon kind of guy.