The Immigration Bill Is Dead

The immigration bill is dead. Well, not officially. But it really feels like it can't survive the onslaught from left and right, even though less than a week ago, Senators from the left and right crafted the compromise measure which included everything from building more border fence to giving illegal immigrants a path to citizenship.

The Republican base is viscerally against it and the lukewarm if not critical reaction from Democrats--Barack Obama, The New York Times, etc--have all turned up their noses at it. Any amendments that will get the Democrats back in line will probably make the bill even more radioactive to Republicans. And vice versa.

I suspect what we'll wind up with, at best, is a border security bill with maybe some pilot programs attached for small numbers of guest workers or just a pure border security bill--with money for fences and radar and agents with guns.

No one can really be optimistic that such monies will do much but since strengthening the border seems to be the one thing that all sides agree on, that's what I suspect will get passed in the end if anything at all gets passed.

The whole episode underscores the weakness of the Bush administration. Time was when Bush could have tamped down some of the conservative base but they have no problem challenging him. Not any more. Bush's endorsement of the measure isn't helping the bill at all.

For their part, the Democrats feel like they have the luxury of opposing a bill that gives them much of what they've always wanted--a path to legal citizenship for the millions of illegal immigrants who are here and aren't going anyplace else.

The bill's reversal of decades of governmental preference for family unification is a dealbreaker for many Democrats. It'll take a summer for this to play out but I will be shocked if anything can get this bill to the president's desk for signature.