Microsoft, Yahoo Quietly Slip into the Weekend

As noted, Microsoft ran a couple of nice spin sorties early in the week on Yahoo's rejection.

The most notable output was the NYT's DealBook story on Tuesday morning, which led with:

In an escalation of its fight for Yahoo, Microsoft will authorize a proxy fight at the Internet company this week, people briefed on the matter told DealBook. Unless Yahoo quickly reverses course and enters into talks, Microsoft would then seek to nominate a slate of directors to Yahoo's board by March 13, the final deadline for nominations, and pursue a lengthy campaign to oust the board.

Well, the business week ended without notice of a hostile move. So what conclusions can spin watchers draw? Jack Flack offers up four likely scenarios for your consideration:

Scenario 1: It was a bluff. Or simply a rogue source among Microsoft's bankers or major holders, hoping to get the ball rolling. Either way, Sorkin & Co. were spoon-fed pure rubbish. Odds: 100-to-1.

Scenario 2: Yahoo has indeed started talking to Microsoft. Or it has at least signaled Microsoft that it will. Odds: 2-to-1.

Scenario 3: Microsoft shifted D-Day to Monday. Or that was the plan all along. Announcing on Monday would not only ensure a much bigger news-play, but also give Yahoo two quiet weekend days to contemplate making Scenario 2 happen. For maximum impact, look for either the WSJ or NYT to have an exclusive "people familiar with the situation" story posted in the wee hours of Monday morning, followed by official confirmation from the company before the markets open on the East Coast. Odds: 4-to-1.

Scenario 4: Microsoft held off because it didn't fully have its act together. A proxy fight is no small matter when it comes to procedural details, and some boxes may still need to be checked for the go-switch gets flipped. Odds: 8-to-1.

Meanwhile, though parsing official statements has thus far proven a worthy investment of time, yesterday's externalized internal e-mail from Microsoft's Kevin Johnson to his Platforms & Services Division didn't offer enough to make it worth the effort. Instead, the note was likely just the bland output of nervous HR people in Redmond, hoping to assure other nervous Microsoft employees about their job security. After all, rumor has that he Yahoo has historically employed creative people.

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