Herb Greenberg Greases the Skids

Last week's news that Eddie Lampert had canned Alwyn Lewis at Sears undoubtedly prompted cringes from fellow retail bosses Phil Schoonover and Steve Odland.

Why? Will the installation of Bruce Johnson at Sears affect business at Schoonover's Circuit City or Odland's Office Depot?

Nope.

The discomfort comes from the fact that both chief executives were tethered to Lewis on January 5 in Herb Greenberg's nominations for "Worst CEOs" of the coming year. While being hoisted in the Wall Street Journal as a member of such a trio was probably not a lot of fun to begin with, the ouster of Lewis turns up the heat, establishing a model that critics of Shoonover and Odland will undoubtedly embrace.

But Greenberg's column, if institutionalized as an early-January rite, has implications beyond Lewis, Shoonover and Odland. After all, it's one thing to tag, as Greenberg did, the worst CEO of the year that's just ended, when the dumb risk-taking, feckless strategies and catastrophic results can't be denied. But saying an executive blew it last year is far less damaging than publicly assuming that an executive lacks the competence to not blow it in the coming year. And what board member or major shareholder wants the ugly optics of their guy carrying the "worst" label?

Is that unfair? Not at all, because past behavior often serves as a highly reliable predictor of future behavior, and because the current list shows a prejudice for nominees who have personally dug themselves into big holes already.

But if Greenberg institutionalizes the "worst-of-the-year-to-come" device, it potentially could become one of the most powerful self-fulfilling prophecy mechanisms in business news. Jack Flack has already noted how fast a boss can slide down "5 Levels of CEO Media Hell," but Greenberg's "worst" column could become a wicked accelerator of that process.

Think about it. With Lewis already on the scoreboard, the sacking of either Schoonover or Odland any time in the next 11 months will mean that Greenberg will be batting an eye-popping .666. And if both get bulleted, he'll look downright clairvoyant. With that kind of kill rate, and with the Journal's inherent stature, next year's list would come loaded with a strong sense of inevitability.

Thus, come 2009, flacks at troubled companies should be sure to check the Journal bright and early on the morning of January 3.