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Chrysler: Uh, Tom, Why Don't You Tal...   Altria 2: And What Business Are You In?
Aug 25 2007 11:21AM EDT

Altria 1: Sell-Side Chatter Becomes MSM Clatter

Jack took his Saturday morning coffee with a double-shot of Altria spin-off speculation, as both the WSJ and NYT anticipate that a board meeting on Wednesday could be the moment the long-rumored split will finally become reality.

Both pieces dutifully try to forward Josh Lipton's Thursday piece for Forbes. While Lipton's report was hung almost exclusively on the soothsaying of GS's Judy Hong, it forced the other major players to follow.

Vanessa O'Connell does a nice job of connecting the dots, laying out recent actions that indicate the move will come soon.

But Andrew Martin actually scores confirmation that a boardroom discussion will occur, "according to people with knowledge of the discussions." He then surfs on more sell-side smart-talk with analysts Marc Greenberg and Bonnie Herzog. Herzog makes it clear, of course, that, oh yeah, everybody's known about this since before fire was first put to tobacco.

The progression of stories provides a great example of how quickly sell-side chatter can coalesce into a monolithic MSM stampede, which should be in full-thunder by Tuesday.

Though Jack has seen many of such stampedes, he is still always intrigued by the early quick-steps that get things rolling. In this case, it was the Hong/ Lipton team doing themselves a favor by partnering up and moving first, and thus creating the dust that would cake in everyone else's nostrils. Martin then pressed his sources for a knowing nod, while O'Connell relied on WSJ thoroughness to bring something new.

MO's response? None, as Reg FD and common sense prevail. Even so, impatience will set in quickly if either the spin-off or a new share repurchase program are not announced Wednesday.

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