Holiday Hangover
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On Wall Street on Thursday, luxe names were hit the hardest among broadline retailers, with Saks’ stock down 5.2 percent to $4.19 and Nordstrom Inc. off 2.4 percent to $14.53. Gainers in the broadline realm included Dillard’s Inc., up 4.5 percent to $4.86; Kohl’s Corp., 4.2 percent to $39.33, and Target Corp., 1.4 percent to $37.52.
Investors were taken by surprise by both Wal-Mart’s profit warning and a more positive outlook from Sears Holdings Corp., calling for adjusted fourth-quarter earnings of $300 million to $380 million. Wal-Mart’s stock sank 7.5 percent to 51.38, while Sears’ was up 23.3 percent to 49.98.
Overall, the Standard & Poor’s Retail Index rose 0.8 percent, or 2.42 points, to 295.21, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average retreated 0.3 percent, or 27.24 points, to 8,742.46.
The strongest performer among the department stores was Kohl’s, which posted a 1.4 percent same-store sales dip, a by-product of last-minute pre-Christmas shopping and purchases made after the holiday, according to Kevin Mansell, president and ceo. Stage Stores Inc. said it had a 4.9 percent dip in comps, better than the 7.1 percent decline in December 2007, while its larger regional rival Dillard’s reported a 5 percent dip versus a flat December last year. The Bon-Ton Stores Inc. improved upon its 11.3 percent comp drop last year, putting up a 5.8 percent decline for the month.
Mall-based Buckle Inc., Aéropostale Inc., Hot Topic Inc. and American Apparel Inc. were the sole gainers among the apparel specialty stores, posting comp increases of 13.5, 12, 4.3 and 3 percent, respectively.
Even companies that don’t report comps on a monthly basis chimed in with downward revisions and words of caution.
J. Crew Group lowered fourth-quarter guidance to a range of a loss of between 24 cents and 29 cents a share from its earlier expectations of a profit of between 5 cents and 10 cents.
“I’m not going to say we’re not disappointed,” said Millard “Mickey” Drexler, chairman and C.E.O. of J. Crew Group. “This has been an incredibly tough time for us, for retail and in general for most businesses in America. As difficult and challenging as business is, we have to keep this all in perspective. Business turned really difficult starting in the fall, and I don’t think anyone can say when it will get less so. We are shopkeepers who have to make certain we have, day-in and day-out, the right goods in the stores, online and in the catalogues, and that we are taking care of every single customer in the best way possible. We’re not sure when things will turn around. But I feel very good about our positioning in the marketplace when it in fact does turn.”
Late Thursday, Coach Inc. lowered its second-quarter earnings expectations to 67 cents a year, 10 cents below its previous guidance of 77 cents and 2 cents below its year-ago EPS.
Zale Corp. said that its comps dropped 13 percent in November and 22 percent in December.
Urban Outfitters Inc. reported that its corporate same-store sales were down 1 percent for the November-December period, with Urban’s 3 percent increase offset by declines of 6 percent at Anthropologie and 13 percent at Free People.
“While we are never happy to report negative comps, we believe our brands performed well given the extreme marketplace conditions,’’ said ceo Glen Senk. “The highly promotional selling environment forced us to take higher markdowns versus the comparable period last year, but we finished the holiday season with clean and lean inventories which are well-positioned for the spring selling season.”
American Eagle Outfitters Inc. posted a 17 percent decline, while rival Abercrombie & Fitch Co. posted a 24 percent dive in comps.
“Abercrombie’s management needs to be a bit more reactive in this environment,” said D.A. Davidson & Co. retail analyst Crystal Kallik. “We are in uncharted waters here.”
Kallik said the teen retailer’s inventory was up a “pretty significant amount,” a situation she deemed “dangerous.” Even though Abercrombie cleared out merchandise during the holiday season with promotions, the company is receiving new deliveries and has even begun marking up some new items, she noted.
Kallik said retailers that haven’t been able to clear through their merchandise in December are going to have a difficult time clearing it in the months ahead. She pointed to the numerous markdowns by West Coast-inspired Pacific Sunwear of California Inc., which posted a 10 percent drop in comps on Thursday and now expects to report a fourth-quarter loss of 38 to 43 cents a diluted share, including an estimated gain of about 10 cents a share from the sale of its Anaheim distribution center. The company said 19 cents of the loss was attributable to “markdown reserves.”
Gap Inc. registered a 14 percent comp decline, while Gap North America, Banana Republic, Old Navy and its international stores reported declines of 12, 15, 16 and 5 percent, respectively. However, unlike its cohorts, the retailer has been benefiting from leaner inventories and cost-cutting initiatives, said Barclay’s Capital retail analyst Jeff Black.
“Gap is just caught in place that top-line growth is going to matter more,” he said, explaining that, with already lean inventory, the focus is on revenue.
Missy apparel retailers Destination Maternity Corp (formerly Mothers Work Inc.), Caché Inc. and Cato Inc. reported comp declines of 6.9, 19 and 2 percent, respectively. Chico’s FAS Inc. finished December with a 12.4 percent comp contraction and also with a new ceo, former Tommy Hilfiger ceo David Dyer.
Among the specialty stores whose shares lost ground Thursday were J. Crew, down 9.2 percent to $10.61; Pacific Sunwear, 7.9 percent to $1.63; Zale, 7.6 percent to $3.75; Bebe Stores Inc., 6.8 percent to $6.18; Limited Brands Inc., 6.5 percent to $10, and Gap, 4.7 percent to $12.92. Those on the upswing included New York & Co., 11.7 percent to $2.49; Urban Outfitters, 10.4 percent to $15.46; The Men’s Wearhouse Inc., 5.8 percent to $14.16, and Charlotte Russe Holding Corp., 5.1 percent to $6.56.
As has been the case through the current recession, mass merchants and off-pricers performed best last month. BJ’s Wholesale Club Inc. excelled with a 5.9 percent surge in comps, versus a 3 percent increase a year ago, while Costco Wholesale Corp.’s comps slid 4 percent. Both Ross Stores Inc. and The TJX Cos. Inc. recorded flat comps, and Target Corp. said its same-store sales fell 4.1 percent.
“I think what we saw today gave us no insight,” said Black, commenting on when financials will improve for retailers. “Hopefully, the sky will be blue again. But I think the cat’s out of the bag on the fourth quarter.”
David Moin is a senior retail editor for WWD.
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