"I haven't started my holiday shopping yet this year," says Judy Malloy of Levittown, Pennsylvania, visiting Times Square on a brisk December day. "Usually I'm done by now, but this year it's too hard. I'm holding back. I'm looking for sales."

Early estimates indicate that Malloy is not alone: Many Americans appear to be holding off on their holiday shopping in hopes that the best bargains are yet to come.  More disturbing for retailers is that when many of them do start shopping, they will be buying less than in years past.

Sales at stores open at least a year fell 2.7 percent in November from a year ago, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers' index of 37 stores. It was the biggest drop since the council began collecting data in 1969.

The only silver lining in the gloomy picture has been the discount chains, like Wal-Mart Stores, Costco, and BJ's Wholesale Club, which have picked up traffic as more and more Americans look to economize.

With the economy in a recession and people fearful about their jobs, it is not surprising that the best-selling product categories for November and December are expected to be necessities like food and toiletries, according to the TNS Retail Forward forecast.

For everything else, the reason some product categories will attract more interest than others this holiday season will be the depth of the discount.

"To be honest, everything takes a back seat to price this year, so it really could be any product category that turns out to be the winner this season," says Kathy Grannis, a spokeswoman for the National Retail Federation. "Every category is facing challenges because consumers have cut back and are so budget conscious."

Jeff Klinefelter, a retailing analyst with Piper Jaffray, agrees.

"There are pockets of strength in certain electronics, but really the strength is in the discount channel, with Wal-Mart and dollar stores driving volume at low prices and most other retailers experiencing declines," he says.

Retailers have been doing everything in their power to produce discounts that are capable of drumming up consumer interest. They have their work cut out for them. The TNS Retail Forward forecast predicts only tepid gains of 3 percent or more for toys, games, and consumer electronics. But apparel sales are expected to be flat, while sales in home furnishings are forecast to shrink significantly from a year ago.

Sellers of teens' and women's apparel like Ann Taylor, Nordstrom, and Limited Brands were more promotional around Black Friday this year than last. On the Friday following Thanksgiving this year, Ann Taylor was offering 20 percent off all merchandise before noon, compared with 15 percent off before 11 a.m. last year. At Gap, sweaters were buy one, get one free. Not only were women's and teens' apparel retailers sending out more promotional emails to consumers in November, but the number of featured offers per email was up 32 percent from last year.

Even with the heavy discounts and promotions, comparable sales at department stores fell 13.3 percent in November, according to the International Council Of Shopping Centers. Sales at specialty apparel chains were off 10.4 percent, and teen retailers saw sales drop 14.8 percent.

There are few bright spots in apparel. Klinefelter at Piper Jaffray, however, says that he expects that the high-end Ugg brand of boots will defy weakness in the footwear sector for another year running. And Kathy Grannis cites anecdotal evidence that women's outerwear performed better than expected after Thanksgiving.

While the electronics category overall seems to be performing better than apparel so far, it has not fared as well as in previous holiday seasons.

In a note earlier this month, Mitchell Kaiser, an analyst with Piper Jaffray, reported anecdotal observations that TVs and P.C.'s have been selling strongly, but G.P.S. systems, MP3 players, and Blu-Ray devices so far have not been the big sellers that some predicted.

Videogame sales have been down overall, with consumers skipping over less well-known games and sticking to popular titles like Rock Band, Guitar Hero, and Fallout 3, which continue to sell briskly.

"My son got three videogames last year for his Xbox," says Jim Marsden from Fayetteville, Arkansas, outside a Toys 'R Us store in Manhattan. "This year he's getting one. He doesn't know it yet, but he's just getting one."

Although videogames as a whole are suffering, so far Nintendo's Wii gaming system has been the closest thing to a "must-have" product for the holiday season. Nintendo's president has said that Wii sales more than doubled to about 800,000 units during the week of Thanksgiving, up from about 350,000 units a year earlier.

The category almost certain to flop this holiday season? Gift cards, which never go on sale and are therefore less attractive to shoppers in a bargain-hunting frame of mind.

The National Retail Federation is predicting gift-card sales of $24.92 billion this season, down 5 percent from last year's projection. Piper Jaffray says feedback from merchants after Black Friday suggested lackluster sales so far.