BizJournals Portfolio

Looking for Hope

In the throes of a recession, Americans say the only bright spot is Barack Obama. The CNBC/Portfolio.com Wealth in America Survey.
Man sitting on steps
1 of 5 NEXT

The U.S. economic meltdown has Americans feeling grim about their financial prospects and spending less on Christmas, but Barack Obama's election has sparked a glimmer of hope, according to the new CNBC/Portfolio.com Wealth in America Survey.

 
The survey shows pessimism running so deep that, for the first time in the survey's two-year history, no statistically significant group (not even 1 percent) rated the economy as excellent. The percentage of Americans who rate the economy as poor ratcheted up to 70 percent, from 65 percent last quarter and 33 percent a year ago.

And the worries are taking their toll on holiday shopping and the retailers that depend on hot sales in the cold weather. According to the survey, Americans plan to spend on average just $704 on their holiday shopping, down 4.6 percent compared with a year ago. One in 10 Americans plan to spend nothing on holiday shopping, double the one in 20 from a year ago.
 
The sliver of optimism showed up, however, in the percentage of Americans who believe the economy will improve next year: That number surged 11 percentage points from September and stands at 39 percent, higher than at anytime in the past 10 months.
 
The optimism appears connected with a change in administrations. Democrats are twice as optimistic about the economy as they were in September; Republicans are nearly twice as pessimistic. But independents are more upbeat, with 35 percent now saying the economy will improve in 12 months, compared with 25 percent in September.
 
Asked how the election of Barack Obama would influence the economy, 55 percent expect it to get better and only 13 percent see it worsening.
 
Americans still are not optimistic about a series of key economic variables: They think their wages will grow by only 3.1 percent next year, down from 5.3 percent a year ago; they believe their home prices will decline by 1.6 percent, the most in the life of the survey, and considerably below the 0.3 percent decline envisioned in September. A year ago, Americans thought their home prices would rise by 2.2 percent over the coming 12 months.
 
The CNBC/Portfolio.com Wealth in America Survey was conducted December 1-3 by Peter D. Hart Research Associates. It polled 804 adults in the U.S.



1a. To begin with, for statistical purposes only, would you please tell me how old you are?  (IF "REFUSED," ASK:) Well, would you tell me which age group you belong to?

18-24  13  [137-138]
25-29  10  
30-34  4  
35-39  6  
40-44  8  
45-49  11  
50-54  10  
55-59  8  
60-64  10  
65-69  5  
70-74  6  
75 and over  8  
Refused  1

1b. And to ensure that we have a representative sample, would you please tell me whether you are from a Hispanic or Spanish-speaking background?

Yes, Hispanic  10  [139]
No, not Hispanic  90  
Not sure/refused -
 
 

1c. And again, for statistical purposes only, what is your race––white, black, Asian, or something else?

White   79  [140]
Black  10  
Asian  1  
Other   3  
Hispanic (VOL)  6  
Not sure/refused  1  

2a. How would you rate the current state of the economy?  Would you say it is excellent, good, only fair, or poor?

   12/08  9/08  6/08  2/08  12/07  10/051  
Excellent  -  1  1  2  5  5  [141]
Good  4  10  6  14  22  27  
Only fair  25  32  29  39  39  46  
Poor  70  56  63  44  33  22  
Not sure  1  1  1  1  2  -  
               
   3/051  8/041  3/041  1/031  1/021    
Excellent  4  4  4  1  1    
Good  37  33  32  18  26    
Only Fair  41  42  38  44  48    
Poor  18  21  26  36  24    
Not sure  1 1 - 1 -    
               

1 Trend data prior to 12/07 come from surveys among registered likely voters conducted by The Tarrance Group and/or Lake, Snell, Perry, Mermin Associates.  

 

blog comments powered by Disqus
Real Business, Real Results

Did anyone at Microsoft ever watch the (gasp!) offensively funny show Family Guy?

Ex-Morgan Stanley exec Zoe Cruz is now heading her own hedge fund. Are Wall Street's leaders done?

Martha, Bernie and Skilling know that what you wear for court can go a long way in public perception.

spotlight on

Health Care

Bad to the Bone No More

Companies such as General Mills say they're stepping up efforts to change employees' bad behavior and promote healthier lifestyles. Read More