BizJournals Portfolio

The Sinkhole

No end in sight for the slide in stocks amid forecasts for a grim 2009.
stocks

Write off this year as a huge loss and forget about next year as well. That is what stock markets and economists around the world are saying with increasing frequency.

Asian stocks tumbled following Wednesday’s sell-off on Wall Street. European stocks are lower: London and other markets are off 1 percent.

Some support came as Switzerland's central bank has surprised the markets by cutting its benchmark interest rate by a full point in the face of a weakening economy. But a report showing that initial claims for state unemployment jumped by 27,000 last week unnerved the market. The number of Americans receiving unemployment claims is now more than 4 million, the most since December 1982.

It was a forecast of a deep and prolonged downturn that rattled the market on Wednesday. The Dow Jones industrial average closed down 5 percent to 2003 levels after the Federal Reserve released minutes that showed it had reduced its growth forecasts for 2009.

"With growth below its potential rate for an extended period," the minutes said, summarizing the economists' views, "the unemployment rate was expected to rise significantly through early 2010."

In addition to growing joblessness, the Fed said, "the declines in stock-market wealth, low levels of consumer sentiment, weakened household balance sheets, and restrictive credit conditions were likely to hinder household spending over the near term."

Analysts with J.P. Morgan Chase now expect the Fed to push interest rates to zero, with a half point reduction after the December 16 meeting and another half point cut after the January 28 meeting.

"We believe the Fed then continues to conduct a zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) for the remainder of 2009," the analysts said, according to the Across the Curve blog.

A survey by Reuters of 250 economists in the Group of Seven industrial nations indicates that the global economy will be mired in a recession for a year.

"All developed economies will contract in 2009,” Marco Annunziata, chief economist at UniCredit, told Reuters. “It's the worst we have had in a century.”

Stocks in Japan fell nearly 7 percent today. Hong Kong lost 4 percent and Seoul fell by 6.7 percent.

“We're seeing a total collapse of trust in everything fundamental,''Espen Furnes, an Oslo-based fund manager at Storebrand Asset Management, told Bloomberg News. “There are no buyers in sight. This year will go down in history.”


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