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The Blurry Bailout

What we still don't know about how the $700 billion will be spent: Pretty much everything.
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The man in charge of the $700 billion bailout program has spoken, but taxpayers don't know much more about what it is they're about to own.

Neel Kashkari, the 35-year-old former Goldman Sachs banker who was tapped to oversee the program, gave a broad overview of the plan's structure and an update on who will help run it in the interim. Treasury is expected to decide on outside asset managers and investment consultants to execute the plan within the next few days. One of three firms will be selected to be the "master custodian" of the program within 24 hours.

But the devil, as they say, is in the details, and Kashkari's speech was short on them. As finance ministers in Europe have adopted sweeping strategies to shore up their financial sectors, the U.S. is still weighing possible lines of attack. For instance, it has not decided on whether or not it will guarantee interbank lending or insure more deposits than it has already announced. Many European leaders have not only already agreed to do so, they've already taken such actions.

Much of the focus in recent days has been on Treasury's new plan to take equity stakes in financial institutions to boost their capital base and spur lending. The announcement late last week marked a shift in the government's plans, as Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson had flatly rejected that idea just weeks ago.

Paulson has called a meeting for Monday afternoon to discuss the program with the heads of many U.S. banks, including Citigroup's Vikram Pandit, Bank of America's Ken Lewis, J.P. Morgan's Jamie Dimon, Morgan Stanley's John Mack, and Goldman Sachs' Lloyd Blankfein.

It's not at all clear how such a program would work. "As with the other programs, the equity purchase program will be voluntary and designed with attractive terms to encourage participation from healthy institutions," Kashkari said. "It will also encourage firms to raise new private capital to complement public capital."

Treasury officials have acknowledged the importance of taking equity stakes without diluting existing shareholders or discouraging outside investments. Britain, on the other hand, did not protect shareholders of Royal Bank of Scotland, HBOS, and Lloyds with its $64 billion capital injections this morning. As a result, shares in those banks plummeted today while the broader stock indexes all surged.

But what exactly is a "healthy" institution in the eyes of the government? Paulson's weekend maneuvering in the Morgan Stanley-Mitsubishi deal provides a bit of insight into just how difficult it may be for the government to pick and choose its investments.

The New York Times reported over the weekend that Paulson did not intend to use his broad powers to inject capital into Morgan Stanley, citing unnamed sources. Was that an empty threat to push Morgan into agreeing to whatever terms were offered from the Japanese bank? Or is Morgan Stanley not a "healthy" institution worthy of some of that taxpayer loot?

But by Sunday night, the tone had softened, with Treasury sources saying they would in fact protect Mitsubishi's investment if it should have to subsequently add its own funds to Morgan Stanley's capital base. At this point, however, it does not plan to do so.

The message was clear. The government would not let Morgan become another Lehman.

It seems that the Treasury Department will have to continue playing a bit of the role of financial therapist to ailing firms in order to encourage as many private transactions as possible. After all, the Feds did not come to the defense of Citigroup in its bid to buy Wachovia Bank with backing from the government after Wells Fargo came in with another offer that did not require federal assistance.

No matter who is tapped to run the TARP, it will be executed by trial and error. The decisions won't be easy, and mistakes will certainly be made.

Kashkari insists that his group is working around the clock to reach solutions, and he boasted about how quickly it has accomplished establishing an interim team and an oversight board, which is to be run by Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke.

But it seems that no matter how fast they move, they can't get there fast enough.


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