BizJournals Portfolio

What Does Wells Want?

Wells Fargo is smart for passing on Wachovia, but time may be running out for a better option.
Wells Fargo

Wells Fargo chairman Richard Kovacevich feels like a kid in a candy shop, only he doesn't seem to know if he wants lollipops or chocolate or bubble gum. And by the time he finally decides, his friends might have wiped the store clean of all the good stuff.

Act now or pay later. Such is life in a banking consolidation wave.

In less than a week, Washington Mutual has been swallowed by J.P. Morgan Chase and Citigroup has swept up the remnants of Wachovia. Bank of America made its moves this year with Countrywide and Merrill Lynch.

Meanwhile, two new giants elbowed their way onto the list of the nation's biggest banks: Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, which agreed to be regulated as commercial banks in a plea for survival.

With the redrawn landscape of the banking industry, Wells Fargo now ranks sixth as measured by assets, behind Citigroup, J.P. Morgan, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley.

But clearly Wells Fargo is doing something right, at least in the eyes of its shareholders. Wells has the third-largest market capitalization of the six banks, behind only J.P. Morgan and Bank of America.

It trades at just about the same price it did a year ago, which is no small feat in this environment. Only J.P. Morgan's stock performance can match Wells'. Bank of America's shares have been pared down by a third, while Citigroup's have more than sliced in half.

Wells Fargo has made no secret that it's shopping. It looked at WaMu's books but chose not to make an offer. It was courting Wachovia up until the 11th hour, according to the Wall Street Journal. Kovacevich had a change of heart after its advisers cried foul over one particular loan portfolio.

Is Wells Fargo being too picky? Or is it being a prudent buyer? It hasn't made a major acquisition since it merged with Norwest 10 years ago.*

In the end, it's probably being some combination of both. Given the turbulence since Monday, Wells is probably breathing a sigh of relief that it didn't pay "in the teens" for Wachovia without government support, as it had reportedly offered initially.

And then there's the uncertainty from Washington. If Wells Fargo waits to make an offer until after a bailout bill finally passes, it could miss the best hours of the bargain-bin sale. After all, there's a reason why Warren Buffett is making his moves now and not a month from now.

Analysts have floated a few names that could make a good fit with the San Francisco-based stagecoach, according to Reuters. National City and Fifth Third Bancorp look to be next in line for the soup kitchen, making either one a potentially cheap buy. One analyst suggests Legg Mason could make a strategic acquisition.

So what's it going to be, Kovacevich? M&M's, Snickers, or Twizzlers? You say you're hungry, but the store might be closing soon.

* Update: The original story said that Wells Fargo bought Norwest. In fact, it was a merger of equals.  


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