BizJournals Portfolio

Cue the Optimists

Several analysts give Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac naysayers an anti-anxiety pill.
Fannie

Several Wall Street analysts have two words for those of you who have gotten your knickers in a twist over the fate of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac: Calm down.

In recent days, market chatter over a potential government bailout of the housing giants has reached a deafening roar. But several optimists have managed to quiet it, for now.

Citigroup equity research analysts told clients that both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have enough capital to cover their losses for the rest of the year. According to a presentation obtained by Reuters, the analysts project that Fannie Mae will have $20.3 billion in excess capital over the minimum required at the end of the year, and Freddie Mac will have $12.7 billion in excess.

The research seems to counter what other housing analysts have said in recent weeks, which is that a bailout for Fannie and Freddie must be imminent.

Separately, Goldman Sachs economists said that even if the government does have to rescue the mortgage giants, the event would be "entirely manageable." While taxpayers may have to incur some cost, they predict, a bailout would not have nearly the implications on the federal debt that some have estimated.

"The cost of G.S.E. intervention would be small in the federal context," they said, according to Dow Jones newswires. "The cost of intervening in the G.S.E. situation—if the Treasury decides this is necessary—would be substantially smaller than the notional amounts of debt suggest."

Yesterday, the bond market also provided a whiff of optimism after Freddie Mac successfully completed a $2 billion debt offering.

Battered Fannie and Freddie shareholders cheered the news. Freddie Mac shares soared 20 percent while Fannie Mae gained 10 percent.

The shares were also bolstered by the latest figures from the S&P/Case-Shiller indexes. While housing prices hit another new low in June, the declines appear to be moderating.


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