Retailers are struggling through summer sales doldrums, but the back-to-school shopping season is expected to provide relief, according to one survey.

The National Retail Federation says that parents will spend some $20 billion shopping for the start of the school year, up 5.5 percent over last year.

Consumers have pegged electronics purchases as the big gainer, expecting those to rise 18 percent, to an average of $151.49 per household.

The N.R.F.'s survey also suggests that relief might not be far away; respondents plan to begin their buying earlier than last year, with 64 percent of shoppers hitting the stores at least three weeks in advance of classes resuming.

Retailers need all the help they can get. In June sales rose a less-than-expected 0.1 percent, as the impact of the 130 million rebate checks that were mailed out as part of an economic stimulus package dimmed.

In the face of a persistently sluggish spending environment and tight credit markets, retailers are shuttering doors at an alarming pace. The Sharper Image, Linens 'n Things, and, most recently, Steve & Barry's have declared bankruptcy, while Home Depot and Starbucks are closing stores. Discount department store Mervyns, owned by private equity firm Cerberus, is reported to be weighing a bankruptcy filing.

Unfortunately, even if N.R.F.'s rosy projections hold true, the report isn't all good news. While school shopping for the K-12 set is forecast to increase from last year, things are just the opposite for back-to-college shoppers. That demographic expects to cut spending by 7 percent this year as they return to classes.

"College students are learning a hard lesson that when economic times are tough, fun purchases take a backseat," said Tracy Mullin, the president and chief executive of the federation. "While students will still be buying school supplies, they will scale back spending on clothing,
electronics, and dorm furnishings."

And a new survey out from Deloitte is far more pessimistic about the back-to-school season as a whole, reporting that 71 percent of participants said they plan to spend less this year.  

But Deloitte's survey is in its first year, so the lack of historical data makes it difficult to evaluate how the results would compare to back-to-school seasons past. Flaws in self-reporting, too, can color the results: It's tempting to say you plan to spend less, but with an imprecise memory of how much you spent last year and a hearty dose of wishful thinking, there's often a wide gulf between forecasts and reality.