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Brewing Bid Battle

How Anheuser can say this Bud's not for you.
Last Trade:Change:
Primary executive:
August A. Busch, IV,
Summary:
The Company's operations are comprised of the following principal business segments: domestic beer, international beer, packaging and entertainment. View More
August A. Busch, IV
Industry:
Food and Beverage
Biography:
August A. Busch IV, President and Chief Executive Officer of Anheuser-Busch Companies, Inc., a brewing organization, since … View More
If Anheuser-Busch is not keen on selling itself to Belgian-Brazilian brewing giant InBev for $46.4 billion, how can it stay independent?

The $65-per-share offer represents a rich premium: It's 14 percent more than Anheuser's stock price on Tuesday, which is after weeks of reports of a possible offer. InBev says it represents a 35 percent premium to Anheuser's 30-day average stock price before the speculation reemerged.

Indeed, there is a compelling logic in the combination of the home of Budweiser and the brewer of Stella Artois and Beck's. There is little geographical overlap, with Anheuser-Busch dominating the United States and InBev leading in Europe and South America. Beer sales in Europe and North America have been sluggish in recent years; the real growth has been in Asia and Latin America.

And with commodity costs rising, from barley and hops to aluminum for cans, it makes sense to have even greater scale for increased buying power and distribution heft. That's why there have been a wave of deals in recent years: SAB and Miller, Molson and Coors, the divvying up of Scottish & Newcastle. InBev itself is the creation of the merger of Belgium's Interbrew and Brazil's AmBev.

But Anheuser is not likely to come to the negotiating table so easily, not after having been run by the Anheuser and Busch families for a century and a half.

The obvious option is for Anheuser to get bigger by acquiring the remaining 50 percent of Grupo Modelo of Mexico, the maker of Corona, that it does not already own.

Antony Currie on Breakingviews.com says it will be hard to make the case that that is a better move for shareholders than InBev's cash offer. He notes that "aside from a one-off spike this year, analysts expect the company's ebitda to return to low-single-digit growth next year."

Anheuser could also announce a reorganization to cut costs and improve efficiencies, but that will also be a hard case to make.

Then there is the nationalist card.

The New York Times points out that Anheuser is a St. Louis institution and that Governor Matthew Blunt of Missouri said that the buyout offer "is deeply troubling to me."

Anheuser is the biggest advertiser during the Super Bowl, spending nearly $24 million last year.

But the Times also notes that Anheuser may come up against another American icon, Warren Buffett, whose 5 percent stake makes him the company's second-biggest shareholder.

InBev, meanwhile, has gone on a charm offensive, releasing a video with the chief executive, Carlos Brito, extolling his respect for the company, its employees and managers, and its iconic status.

Optimism for a deal is reflected in the market: InBev's shares are up in European trading.

And Anheuser has not indicated whether it will oppose a deal. The company said that its board "will evaluate the proposal carefully and in the context of all relevant factors, including Anheuser-Busch's long-term strategic plan."

Christopher Gower, an analyst with MF Global Securities, is relieved that things have not turned nasty yet. "We aren't getting anything to signify that Anheuser are hostile," he told Bloomberg News.




 



 

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