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A Game of Chicken

Soaring grain prices and trade bottlenecks are actually driving some food costs down.
Boneless skinless chicken breasts
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Here's some dinner advice for the inflation-weary food shopper: Buy the chicken breast, hold the corn.

Even as food prices worldwide have been soaring, the wholesale price of boneless, skinless chicken breasts is falling. They've declined more than 4 percent from this time last year, even as poultry producers are squeezed by the soaring costs of corn and soybean-based feed.

Food Crisis
Since 2005, food prices have soared 80 percent, and analysts don't expect prices to abate soon. Here is a look at recent developments around the world.
The reason? Rising grain prices have made it cheaper to slaughter livestock than to feed it. So there's a glut of protein in the market, and an export bottleneck is preventing producers from sending the excess to hungry consumers abroad.

The country's largest poultry producer, Pilgrim's Pride, said it lost $111.4 million last quarter, placing the blame squarely on $200 million in additional expenses for the corn and soybean meal that turns little chicks into plump entrées. It also predicted another loss in the current quarter, as it sells chicken for 8 cents a pound less than it costs to produce.

"The current operating environment is among the most difficult I've seen in my 27 years in this business," Pilgrim's Pride chief executive Clint Rivers said on a conference call.

Bargain chicken is helping McDonald's keep a lid on its food expenses. The company said in April that it expects cheese prices to rise 30 percent this year, compared with only 5 percent or 6 percent for chicken. On Tuesday, it announced it would give away 8 million chicken-biscuit sandwiches on May 15 as it introduces poultry into its breakfast lineup.

These dynamics have made meat a bargain in the supermarket. Boneless chicken breast cost an average of $3.37 a pound in March, up just 1 percent from March 2007, according to Department of Labor statistics. Meanwhile, supermarket prices for a gallon of milk rose 23 percent and bread prices climbed 16 percent over the period.

Six poultry producers have announced plans to reduce production this year and shorten the length of their supply contracts, raising hopes in the industry that reducing the supply of chickens will lift the price of prepared breasts.

But a range of factors are working against the poultry industry, from stiffer competition with pork and beef producers to backups at the ports where quartered chickens begin their journey to eager consumers in China and Russia.

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