You don’t need to be all doom and gloom about it.

Sure, the U.S. could be in a recession. Consumer confidence is declining. Food and gas are so expensive it’s more cost-effective to stay home and diet.

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But the advertising business (of all things!) is actually benefiting from the painful spectacle of the traditional media landscape fragmenting into shards. The internet is continuing to oust broadcast TV, print, and radio from their once-secure position as the automatic repository for ad dollars, and the complex environment that’s been rattling the advertising and media industries could actually function as an economic buoy during these hard times.
 
Here’s how it works. Advertisers and the companies that service them now need a multitude of ways to drill their messages into the public consciousness. That desperation plays right into the hands of the giant holding companies that now own everything from traditional ad agencies to media planning and buying businesses to PR firms to promotions specialists to digital advertising agencies with expertise in hot, new areas like search-engine optimization.
 
Clearly there’s pain; but it’s not being evenly distributed right now.
 
Just compare Google’s results and those of The New York Times Co. Google recently reported a 42 percent jump in revenues in the first quarter of 2008 over the same period in 2007. Nearly half of the revenue came from the U.S. and the figures aren’t inflated by the acquisition of DoubleClick. Meanwhile, the Times saw revenue slip 4.9 percent and advertising revenues drop 9.2 percent.
 
Now looking ahead, Google and the rest of the digital-advertising world are expected to grow just a little slower this year than they would have otherwise. But for Google, a bodacious 42 percent rise in revenue appears lackluster compared with the 63 percent year-over-year pop it saw in 2006 and 2007.
 
A market-research company, eMarketer lowered its 2008 growth forecast for online ad spending from whopping 29 percent in October 2007 to measly 23 percent in March 2008. You get the gist.
 
Marketers are still spending online and will continue to, whether it’s through paid search, banner ads, video, viral ads, email, or even coupons. Spending on online promotions, which includes tactics like contests, coupons, and rebates, will triple over the next five years to $22.8 billion from $8 billion in 2007, reports a new study from research firm and consultancy Borrell Associates.

Online marketing and advertising also has a leg up in a stressed economic environment, because the return on investment is significantly easier to track and explain to the boss.

Meanwhile for the newspaper industry, the weakened economy and the rise of the internet is a perfect storm.