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And the Takeover Battle Continues

Yahoo's earnings were strong, but not strong enough to scare Microsoft away.
Last Trade:Change:
Industry:
Technology
Primary executive:
Jerry Yang,
Summary:
The Company is a global Intenet brand and trafficked destinations worldwide. It is focused on powering its communities of … View More
Last Trade:Change:
Industry:
Technology
Primary executive:
Steven A. Ballmer,
Summary:
The Company develops, manufactures, licenses, and supports a range of software products for many different types of computing devices. View More
Blake Jorgensen
Industry:
Technology
Biography:
Effective as of May 14, 2007, the appointment of Blake Jorgensen, age 47, to serve as Chief Financial Officer of the Company. … View More
Jerry Yang
Industry:
Technology
Biography:
The Board of Directors of the Company appointed Jerry Yang, age 38, to serve as Chief Executive Officer of the Company. Mr. … View More

Yahoo investors had waited weeks for this.

To send Microsoft and its unwanted takeover bid packing, the company had to show it was doing fabulously on its own. So investors and many others were watching Tuesday for what might be the earnings report heard around the world.

But when the big moment came, there was a tinge of disappointment surrounding it all.

Not because Yahoo did badly. Its earnings showed the company is doing well enough. But well enough wasn't what the crowd demanded. Yahoo either had to deliver the kind of blowout quarter usually associated with Google, or it had to do so poorly that Microsoft would have an instant mandate to take control.

It did neither. Coming five days before a deadline that Microsoft set before it starts using nastier takeover tactics, Yahoo showed first-quarter earnings that were two cents a share stronger than Wall Street's estimates.

"It doesn't seem as if this was a game-changing quarter," said Derek Brown, an analyst with Cantor Fitzgerald. "It was a solid quarter, but on fairly light guidance. The hurdle was relatively low to begin with."

Yahoo's total revenue rose nine percent year-over-year, to $1.8 billion—not bad, but below the 14 percent growth rate it's forecasting for the whole year. Net revenue, excluding marketing commissions and fees, grew 14 percent, to $1.35 billion, below the 25 percent growth Yahoo is promising for all of 2008.

Net profit came in at $542 million, or 37 cents a share. And three-quarters of that profit came from $401 million in noncash gains that Yahoo received when Alibaba went public in Hong Kong. Yahoo owns 39 percent of Alibaba.

Factor out the Alibaba payout and stock-compensation costs, and Yahoo's profit was 11 cents a share, flat with the year-ago quarter and above the nine cents that analysts had forecast. But the whisper number—Wall Street's way of second-guessing itself at the last minute—was 11 or 12 cents.

So have a seat, everyone. This takeover battle is going to drag on.

"It's like reading a potboiler," said Jeffrey Lindsay, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein. "Just when you think it's going to be decisive, Yahoo gives you just enough to keep it going."

Yahoo chief executive Jerry Yang, who has a knack for wrapping bullish sentiments in underwhelming rhetoric, said he was "very proud" that Yahoo's revenue came in "in the upper half" of the guidance he gave in January. Not outside the range. Just better than average.

Preening about a narrow escape from mediocrity—that says everything you need to know about Yahoo in April 2008.

Yang also broadcast reruns of anti-Microsoft rhetoric he's given before. He said Microsoft's bid undervalues Yahoo. Its board has been "expeditiously exploring a number of strategic alternatives," but it remains "open to any and all alternatives, including a sale to Microsoft," said Yang.

As positive as the quarter was for Yahoo, it brought evidence that the company remains a laggard in a growing industry. While total revenue at Yahoo rose nine percent, revenue from ads alone rose only seven percent.

And international revenue—which had propelled Google and eBay to strong earnings last quarter—was sluggish. Net revenue from international operations grew seven percent for Yahoo, compared with 17 percent at home. Yahoo has a strong presence in China and Japan but only through minority stakes that don't translate into earnings.

On the conference call, Jefferies analyst Youssef Squali pointed out that the 25 percent growth Yahoo is forecasting in net revenue for both this year and next not only exceeds its first-quarter growth rates, it outstrips the growth forecast for online ads in general. Yahoo C.F.O. Blake Jorgensen responded simply that Yahoo stands by its forecasts.

So Yahoo must not only grow faster than it has been, it will also have to grow faster than others, including Google. (Google's net revenue grew by 46 percent last quarter.) Squali noted that Wall Street's 2008 estimates for Yahoo aren't tracking with the company's guidance, which "implies a lot of skepticism."

And that raises a discomfiting question for Yahoo: How can it convince Microsoft it's doing fabulously if it can't even persuade Wall Street?


 



 

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