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Markdowns on Malls

With the economy slowing down and consumers buttoning up, commercial real estate heads for a slump.
Empty mall
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Ryan Gaston may never break ground on the 227-acre Crosstown Commons outdoor mall in Corpus Christi, Texas, that he's nurtured for the past year.

Why? One by one, big brand retailers, which Gaston won't name but had formerly committed to the project, have opted for the layaway plan instead. They want to see if slowing retail sales will recover over the coming months before they commit to expanding.

"Because of the economic slowdown, our anchors decided to hold on their commitments until their sales improve," says Gaston, a development partner with Hawkins Companies of Boise, Idaho. He says he sees construction on the project pushed back at least until 2009. It was supposed to start in July.

With consumers once flush from fat credit lines now cutting back, and retail stores watching sales shrivel, the commercial real estate sector is now feeling the burn.

Wall Street's
Next Crisis

Office space is also weak: That's bad news for banks.

Retailers concerned that consumers are spending less mixed with lenders tightening credit lines is causing some deals across the country to fall through—or at the very least to be delayed.

Case in point? Wal-Mart recently backed out of plans for several new sites, including a 76-acre retail project in Oakley, California, as well as a shopping center development in Clermont, Florida.

The developer of that project, called Plaza Collina, has pledged to move ahead, but the loss of an anchor tenant the size of Wal-Mart will make it much harder to get smaller retailers on board.

Even when big brands do sign up as tenants, there can still be some hesitancy—especially in this weakened economic environment. "It's becoming increasingly difficult to lease the last 10 to 20 percent once anchors are in place," says Nicholas Vedder, a senior associate analyst with Green Street Advisors in Newport Beach, California.

Often these days, even the first 10 to 20 percent can be difficult, as Gaston well knows. He found nearly all of the prospective tenants for the Crosstown Commons waffling, each wanting the other to take the plunge and sign a lease first.

"The power stores said, 'We're not going to do it if you didn't get the lifestyle names to commit,' and the lifestyle brands said they needed to hold," says Gaston, who adds that other projects he's developing across the country are hamstrung by the economy as well.

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