Markdowns on Malls
Why? One by one, big brand retailers, which Gaston won't name but had formerly committed to the project, have opted for the layaway plan instead. They want to see if slowing retail sales will recover over the coming months before they commit to expanding.
"Because of the economic slowdown, our anchors decided to hold on their commitments until their sales improve," says Gaston, a development partner with Hawkins Companies of Boise, Idaho. He says he sees construction on the project pushed back at least until 2009. It was supposed to start in July.
With consumers once flush from fat credit lines now cutting back, and retail stores watching sales shrivel, the commercial real estate sector is now feeling the burn.
Wall Street's |
Retailers concerned that consumers are spending less mixed with lenders tightening credit lines is causing some deals across the country to fall through—or at the very least to be delayed.
Case in point? Wal-Mart recently backed out of plans for several new sites, including a 76-acre retail project in Oakley, California, as well as a shopping center development in Clermont, Florida.
The developer of that project, called Plaza Collina, has pledged to move ahead, but the loss of an anchor tenant the size of Wal-Mart will make it much harder to get smaller retailers on board.
Even when big brands do sign up as tenants, there can still be some hesitancy—especially in this weakened economic environment. "It's becoming increasingly difficult to lease the last 10 to 20 percent once anchors are in place," says Nicholas Vedder, a senior associate analyst with Green Street Advisors in Newport Beach, California.
Often these days, even the first 10 to 20 percent can be difficult, as Gaston well knows. He found nearly all of the prospective tenants for the Crosstown Commons waffling, each wanting the other to take the plunge and sign a lease first.
"The power stores said, 'We're not going to do it if you didn't get the lifestyle names to commit,' and the lifestyle brands said they needed to hold," says Gaston, who adds that other projects he's developing across the country are hamstrung by the economy as well.
"This is definitely a national issue," Gaston says.
Retail numbers seem to hold that up. The national vacancy rate for neighborhood and community shopping centers rose to 7.7 percent in April—the highest amount of unleased space since 1996, according to Reis, a real estate research firm.
At the same time, rents fell in 31 of the 76 markets the group monitors, according to Reis' chief economist, Sam Chandon. He adds that rental income is likely to drop even further this year as new retail space that was started during the boom becomes available, glutting the market.
"Consumers are under pressure, and there's more job losses to come, which will significantly crimp retail activity," Chandon says. "And there's nothing like job losses to put the fear into people and make then start saving."
Large national retailers are bracing for lower sales by closing stores. Ann Taylor, Talbots, and Macy's are among those planning to shutter locations recently. Macy's, the venerable New York-based department store, pulled up recently from the Valley View Center in Dallas—and said it would close eight other stores this year.
"When an anchor like [Macy's] closes, it affects the ability to lease any space," says Chandon. "Shopping malls depend on anchors to draw in other tenants."
Creditors haven't missed these signs either. Many developers have suddenly had banks demand more equity before agreeing to loans, or have seen loan agreements come back with lending rates so high that they're not willing to sign.
"This started to hit about August 2007," says Scott Lynn, a Dallas-based principal for Metropolitan Capital Advisors, which secures financing for real estate developers. "We have definitely noticed a slowdown in financing from the Wall Street conduits and securitizing lenders. It's been a very significant pull back."
Even small neighborhood strip malls are not immune from the economic slowdown, though their focus on supermarkets and other stores that sell staples used to make them resistant to downturns. Cash-strapped customers are passing them by for big-box retailers.
"Consumers are much more value conscious—even for groceries," Chandon says. "So these stores and neighborhood malls are not completely immune this time around."
Yet not everyone is reading these signs as time to close up shop. For existing mall owners, rents will eventually rise as less retail space gets built, says Robert McMillan, an equity analyst with Standard and Poor's.
"If you curtail supply," he says, "rental rate growth will gradually increase for existing players in the market."
That's little comfort for developers. With the economy in a funk and consumers just spending less, developers say they're not expecting the high life again for quite a while.
"This is not a cycle I've seen before," says Gaston. "We just got out of the biggest boom in development in years. So even when we do come back, I don't expect it's going to be at levels we've previously seen."




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