There's a tornado heading toward the distressed market, and Carl Icahn plans to hide while he waits to see if it will pass.

The activist investor and wannabe blogger spoke at the Buyouts East conference yesterday about his economic outlook, investment opportunities, and, of course, his disdain of corporate boards.

The tornado is Icahn's metaphor for the continued fallout from the credit crisis. There's no doubt that more is coming, he says. The tornado could destroy everything in its path or lose steam before it arrives, but until he knows for sure, he's steering clear of the distressed market. Once it passes, he says, there will be plenty of opportunities.

Icahn, who says he believes the economy is currently in a recession, took advantage of the distressed market during the economic slowdowns in the early 1990s and again after the technology bubble burst. "Today, it's worse," he said. "I would be very, very careful buying distressed right now."

The one place he says he does see value in that market is in bank debt, although he says he's not currently buying any. "Nobody really can pick the bottom of the market," he said. "But I have never seen it this bad in the banking area."

Count on Icahn to take advantage of the distressed market once he's certain the storm has passed. He believes bankruptcies will be "a huge growth industry for the next few years."

He doesn't know when the economy will rebound, but he's worried that if the situation persists, Americans will elect a Democrat in November. "Hopefully they won't go wild [with regulation]," he said. Needless to say, he'll be pulling the lever for McCain.

Icahn, who is currently fighting for board seats at Motorola, used plenty of his time to skewer the bad habits of board members, as he is so famous for doing. Asked to put odds on his nominees being accepted to Motorola's board at May's shareholder meeting, Icahn hedged. "Sometimes the best way to win the war is not to fight it," he said, curiously.

Perhaps he has forgotten that he's been at the front lines of that war for many months now. In a regulatory filing just yesterday, Icahn disclosed his stake in the company increased to 6.3 percent from 5 percent.  

And what about that question that's burning on so many minds: When will Icahn start blogging? Earlier this year he told a reporter that he plans to launch a blog on Icahnreport.com. But the site has been teasing visitors with a "coming soon" notice ever since.

"I'm gonna do it," he said yesterday. "It's been a little bit of a problem with the lawyers. Every night I write for about an hour and the next day they rip it up."

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