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Ho-Ho-Hum

Holiday sales rise just 3.6 percent. 

Holiday sales rose just 3.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to data from MasterCard Advisors, confirming expectations of a disappointing season for retailers.

Sales from Thanksgiving to Christmas rose 6.6 percent last year, and 8.7 percent in 2005.

"Overall, sales came in just above the lower end of the range we were expecting, maintaining the slower, modest growth we've been seeing throughout the year," said Michael McNamara, vice president of research and analysis for MasterCard Advisors.

"Anyone who was looking for this holiday season to kick-start a new wave of growth would find these numbers falling short of expectation."

Apparel was very weak, rising just 1.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis. Women's apparel was down 2.4 percent.

Sales of electronics, which surged earlier in the holiday shopping season, fed by demand for G.P.S. devices, faded as Christmas approached, rising just 2.7 percent from the period a year ago.

Online commerce was the strongest category, according to MasterCard Advisors. On the Monday after Thanksgiving, online sales climbed 40 percent from a year ago. The holiday shopping season ended with an overall gain of 22.4 percent.

The MasterCard retail-sales survey is based on data on purchases by the more than 300 million users of MasterCard credit and debit cards, as well as on estimates for other payments.

Barry Ritholtz in the Big Picture blog points out that the data includes purchases of food and energy, both of which have had big price increases this year.

If gasoline and restaurant sales are excluded, his ballpark estimate is that sales rose nearly 2 percent, or a bit below the core rate of inflation.

"In other words, real sales may have reflected an actual loss over last year," he says. "This was despite the longer holiday shopping season."


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