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How Low Will the Fed Go?

Investors are looking for relief from Bernanke.
Industry:
Professional Services
Summary:
A financial services company, which through its subsidiaries provides tax, investment, retail banking, accounting and business …
Primary executive:
Alan M. Bennett,
Industry:
Finance
Summary:
The Company serves the financial needs of corporations, governments, municipalities, institutional clients and high net worth …
Primary executive:
Richard S. Fuld, Jr.,
Industry:
Finance
Summary:
A global financial services holding company, which provides a range of financial services to consumer and corporate customers.
Primary executive:
Vikram S. Pandit,
Industry:
Retail
Summary:
The Company operates membership warehouses, which offer low prices on a limited selection of nationally branded and selected …
Primary executive:
James D. Sinegal,
Vikram S. Pandit
Industry:
Finance
Biography:
Vikram S. Pandit, Chief Executive Officer, Citigroup Inc. - December 2007 to present; Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, …

There is often a sense of drama and intrigue when a Federal Reserve policy meeting approaches.

That is certainly the case this week, with the Fed scheduled to convene tomorrow. Wall Street expectations are running high that the Fed will cut its benchmark a quarter-point; many say a half-point cut is likely. Whatever the Fed does—and says—will have a major effect on markets.

This past Friday's November employment report, while stronger than forecasts, showed that economic growth remains weak. The report, which found that 94,000 jobs were added last month, is not expected to change Fed officials' minds about the need for rate cuts.

When the Fed last met, at the end of October, it cut rates by a quarter-point but also indicated that it might be a temporary measure.

And despite signs after the meeting that the housing slump was still wreaking havoc on financial institutions and the economy, it was not until two weeks ago that a belief took hold that the Fed would lower rates again in December.

Then speeches by Donald Kohn, the vice chairman of the Fed, and Ben Bernanke, the Fed chairman, focused on the turmoil in the credit markets and the impact a credit tightening was having on the overall economy. Their comments indicated that rate cuts were back on the table.

The Fed meeting may overshadow everything else that is occurring this week, including the possible installation of a new chief executive officer at Citigroup and two other events that mark the fall of one media mogul and the victory of another.

The board of Citigroup begins a two-day meeting today, and it may announce a new C.E.O. on Tuesday. The leading candidate is said to be Vikram Pandit, a former top Morgan Stanley executive who now oversees Citigroup's investment banking business. 

Conrad Black, who once owned the Telegraph of London, the Jerusalem Post, and the Chicago Sun-Times, will be sentenced today. In July, Black was convicted by a federal court in Chicago of three counts of mail fraud and one count of obstruction of justice.

On Thursday, Rupert Murdoch, Black's onetime rival, is set to complete his successful takeover of Dow Jones, the publisher of the Wall Street Journal, when Dow Jones shareholders vote on his $5.6 billion offer. Dow Jones announced this past Thursday that after the deal is finalized this week, Richard Zannino will step down as C.E.O. of the company.

Also on Thursday, Lehman Brothers will be the first Wall Street firm to report its fourth-quarter and full-year results. Lehman closed its fiscal year in a difficult month for the credit markets. The bank is expected to have earned $1.59 per share for the quarter, a drop from the same period last year.

Other earnings reports of note will be H&R Block's second-quarter results today and Costco's first-quarter earnings on Thursday.

The first major economic news of the week comes on Wednesday with the release of the October trade report. The trade balance for that month is seen as rising just slightly from $56.5 billion in September to $57 billion.

Retail sales figures will be released by the Commerce Department on Thursday, and are forecast to have risen from 0.2 percent in October to 0.5 percent in November; excluding automobiles, that number bumps up to 0.6 percent from 0.2 percent in October.

Closely watched data on inflation is also out this week. The November report on producer prices arrives on Thursday. The Producer Price Index is forecast to rise 1.5 percent in November after a 0.1 percent gain in October. Economists estimate that the core P.P.I., which excludes food and energy costs, will grow 0.2 percent.

On Friday, the Consumer Price Index is expected to show a 0.6 percent rise in prices for November, following on a 0.3 percent rise in October. The core C.P.I. is likely to stay in line with October's increase of 0.2 percent.


 
 

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