Lured by loss-leading, attention-grabbing sale prices on limited numbers of popular items—flat-screen televisions and other electronics seemed to lead the list—holiday shoppers dutifully lined up at stores before dawn on Friday, the first unofficial shopping day of the Christmas season.

But the early burst of enthusiasm for below-cost bargains was no sign that retailers would be able to avoid what economists have said will be a painfully weak quarter for them.

While there were many anecdotes about hundreds of people waiting outside department stores in the early morning chill—both J.C. Penney and Kohl's opened their doors at 4 a.m., for example—many shoppers said they expect this holiday season to be a relatively lean one. 

Toys R Us, Macy's, and other major retailers acknowledged that although they drew crowds for their predawn "doorbuster" specials, they must find ways to get them to return after the initial sales if they are to make their season's goals.

The National Retail Federation has forecast that sales will rise 4 percent this season, to $474.5 billion. That would be below the 10-year average of 4.8 percent and the slowest sales growth since 2002, when sales climbed 1.3 percent.

Ayuna Kidder, an economist and consultant for TNS, predicts that sales growth will be just 3.3 percent this year. While forecasters' numbers vary, they agree that skyrocketing energy costs and the weakness in the housing market will take their toll on holiday spending.