One million Californians have fled deadly, out-of-control wildfires in the largest mass evacuation in the state's 157-year history. The relief effort is shaping up as the biggest and costliest since Hurricane Katrina.
Two people were confirmed dead and more than 50 injured, as 7,000 firefighters battled to save lives and property threatened by the chain of blazes that has charred 600,000 acres and destroyed 1,800 homes and businesses.
As the effort to control the fires entered its fourth day, insurance industry experts began to offer cautious estimates of the costs of the catastrophe. The Insurance Information Institute was the first major trade group to issue a "preliminary" insured-loss estimate.
"Given losses to date, the largely uncontrolled nature of the fire, and experience with past events," said Loretta Worters, vice president of the institute, "insured damages from the California wildfires could exceed $500 million."
Worters said that estimate includes not only damaged and destroyed homes, but also "payments for additional living expenses, losses to businesses, including business interruption insurance, and wind and smoke damage."
Several experts interviewed by Portfolio.com said that the final insurance industry liability from the fires will far exceed $500 million, but few were willing to issue explicit predictions Tuesday, as the crisis worsened in real time.
Neena Saith, an analyst with the insurance consulting firm Risk Management Solutions, said that the firm was waiting to see how the crisis developed before making formal predictions of the losses and that it would be issuing an insured-loss estimate "in the next few days."
Hurricane Katrina cost the insurance industry $41 billion.
Only about 1 percent of the catastrophic 200,000-acre Witch fire just south of Los Angeles—which alone has destroyed or damaged more than 1,000 homes and business and forced nearly 500,000 people to flee—had been contained as of Wednesday morning, according to the Los Angeles Times/Google Maps fire status board.
The huge Witch fire is moving rapidly westward toward Encinitas and the Pacific Ocean. Nearly 2,000 firefighters were battling through the night to try to contain the massive blaze, according to officials.
The deadly 72,000-acre Harris fire near San Diego was reported to be only 10 percent contained. Nearly 500 homes have been destroyed or damaged in that blaze.
The 40,000-acre Buckweed fire, however, was reported to be 80 percent contained.
Also, the Santa Ana winds fueling the fires had quieted from their 85-mile-per-hour peaks by Wednesday morning, though meteorologists warned that they could pick up again throughout the day.
California fire officials said they were prepared if the prevailing winds coming off the Pacific Ocean resumed—effectively spinning the huge Witch inferno in a 180-degree direction, sending it back inland.
On Tuesday, California governor Arnold Schwarzenegger choppered in a Blackhawk helicopter around the blazes that have charred his state. President Bush has announced he will visit the region tomorrow.
California emergency officials earned praise for their disaster-relief efforts, as casualty figures failed to keep pace with the catastrophic physical damage caused by the fires. Officials repeatedly said they had learned lessons from Hurricane Katrina, as well as from San Diego's 2003 Cedar fire, which killed 24 people.
Some experts said the destruction could ultimately be a boon for economic development in Southern California because of the expected tidal wave of insurance payouts.
"In the odd nature of economic accounting, this will probably be a stimulus," Alan Gin, an economist at the University of San Diego, told the Los Angeles Times. "There will be a huge amount of rebuilding in the next couple of years, financed by insurance payments."
At a Glance:
(3 a.m. E.S.T., October 24, 2007)
- Fires burning: 13
- Confirmed deaths: 2
- Injuries: More than 50 residents, 17 firefighters
- Evacuees: More than 1 million
- Buildings destroyed: 1,800 homes and businesses
- Buildings threatened: 100,000
- Acres currently burning: 300,000
- Acres already burned: 300,000
- Firefighters battling blazes: 7,000
- Qualcomm Stadium: 12,000 evacuees
- Red Cross volunteers: 2,000 in San Diego
- Red Cross shelters: 14 in Southern California
- Red Cross meals served: 35,000
- Minimum insured losses: $500 million
Sources: CNN; Fox News; Insurance Information Institute; Portfolio.com.



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