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The Case for Chapter 11

Why bankruptcy might not be the worst thing that could happen to General Motors.
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These are desperate times in Detroit. General Motors attempted to merge with Ford Motor, only to be rebuffed. As of this writing, it was exploring a buyout of Chrysler, which is an intriguing possibility but faces very long odds. (Who would lend G.M. money for that deal right now? In fact, who would lend G.M. money for anything right now?) In the meantime, all three carmakers are burning through cash as if they were internet companies circa 1999. Ford and G.M. have explicitly stated they aren’t considering filing for bankruptcy, further fueling rumors that they will. But maybe they should, especially G.M., which is currently in the most dire situation of the Big Three and has perhaps the most to gain from a Chapter 11 reorganization.

To be sure, Ford isn’t exactly comfortable, but it has more cash than G.M.—about $27 billion as of the most recent quarter—and is consuming it less rapidly. Ford also has some attractive assets that could find buyers, like its Volvo division and its 33 percent stake in Mazda, whose profits remain healthy. As for Chrysler, the company’s best hope isn’t a U.S. government bailout but Cerberus bailing out. The private equity firm bought an 80 percent stake in Chrysler last year for just $7.4 billion—less than a quarter of what Germany’s Daimler had paid a decade earlier. Yet in hindsight, Daimler probably got the better deal. Chrysler’s sales have plunged 25 percent this year, far more than any other major car company’s. Still, like Ford, Chrysler has some assets—specifically its Jeep brand, its minivans, and its Dodge pickup-truck division—that could attract a healthy foreign automaker looking to expand in the U.S.

The most sensible buyers would be Japan’s Nissan or India’s Tata Motors.

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Which brings us back to G.M. and the case for Chapter 11. A bankruptcy filing, if managed properly, might not be a death sentence for G.M. but instead a chance for it to streamline its operations. A desperate move? Sure, but less so than acquiring Chrysler, which is akin to tying two stones together to see if they’ll float. A G.M.-Chrysler merger, should it happen, would produce lots of fancy PowerPoint slides about synergies and savings. But it would also be an enormous distraction for a company that has dithered too long without addressing its urgent need to restructure and downsize.

Numbers tell the story: G.M. reported $21 billion in cash at the end of the second quarter and then added $4.5 billion by tapping existing credit lines. During the third quarter,  the company’s cash probably dropped back to $21 billion or so. Even before the global financial crisis, G.M. was tearing through about $1 billion a month, and with vehicle sales now slowing not just in the U.S. but also overseas (formerly a growth area for G.M.), the burn rate is only increasing. Management can’t drain the cash hoard all the way to zero—the company says it needs $11 billion to $14 billion at any given time just to meet payroll, buy parts, and keep the lights turned on. If you do the math, General Motors will likely run out of cash next summer.

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