As American consumers begin to face the prospect of $4-a-gallon gasoline, one thing's for sure: They want a head, and Big Oil, President Bush, or Wall Street will suffice.
 
This month, the CNBC/Portfolio Wealth in America survey asked 801 Americans to name one or two things they felt were "most to blame for the current high price of gasoline;" topping the list of replies were oil companies (28 percent), President Bush (26 percent), and speculators (23 percent).
 
Democrats in Washington would be inclined to agree.
         
Ebben Burnham-Snyder, a spokesman for the House Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming, believes consumers are expressing righteous disapproval of how oil companies choose to use those record profits that we hear so much about.
 
"Oil companies could be making better decisions in terms of what they're investing in," said Burnham-Snyder. "Exxon invested $32 billion in stock buybacks last year. They're investing somewhat in exploration and production, but not enough. The best fuel engineers are working for oil companies, and they're not looking for ways to invest in biofuels."
 
Yadda, yadda, yadda.
 
Big Oil, the president, institutional investors, the Masons, whomever…the truth is, when it comes to playing the blame game for energy prices, there are lots of eloquent arguments and few agreed-upon facts. The specter of $140 (and counting) oil has left blood on many different hands—so what about our own?
 
When asked about the cause of gas prices, demand from India and China (17 percent) and U.S. consumer demand (13 percent) didn't make it onto the top half of the list of responses.   
 
That fact is shocking to economists, many of whom believe that politically motivated finger-pointing and sensationalist media coverage have misled consumers' understanding of the situation. (Let us know where you have felt the squeeze most.)
 

"The problem is too much demand and not a lot of supply," says Henry Lee, a lecturer on energy issues and public policy at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government. "We keep seeing people on TV raging against speculators, and it's very hard because every day all you get is people telling you it's evil people behind the prices. No one wants to say, ‘Maybe it's all of us that caused this problem.’"
 
In Washington, that’s a very pedestrian idea.
 
Dan Weiss, director of climate strategy at the Center for American Progress, a Washington-based think tank, places the oil blame on President Bush for issues ranging from his weak dollar policy to his failure to develop a credible energy policy.
 
"It is the policies of Bush that have gotten us into this," says Weiss. "We've had no energy policy since 2001, and the weak dollar, for which he's responsible, has started a run on oil from institutional investors."
 
And don’t forget the speculators. "There was a report by a Senate committee that found it's responsible for up to $30 a barrel," Weiss says.
 
Kenneth Deffeyes, oil expert and Princeton geology professor emeritus, agrees with Lee that market speculation is only a minor reason for today's oil prices. He also discounts the conspiracy-theory approach—that oil companies are sluggish in production and new exploration in order to prop up prices.
 
"Geologists are not finding any oil. We're dealing with the leftovers now," says Deffeyes.
 
Production reached a plateau in 2005 at around 85 million barrels a day, and many (including Deffeyes) believe that represents a production peak from which we will eventually decline.
 
Meanwhile, as India and China continue to grow an oil-guzzling middle class, demand in those countries is forecast to grow almost 5 percent this year alone.
 
"The standard economists' view revolves around increasing demand from emerging markets, which has not been an important factor until the last several years," says Craig Burnside, a professor of economics at Duke University. "We are on the part of the supply curve that is inelastic."
 
Which, in plain English, means economists believe we've hit a wall and are producing as much as we possibly can.
 
While Lee, Deffeyes, and Burnside discount the idea that cracking down on oil companies and market speculators will solve the oil-price problem, they do see a prominent role for everyday consumers.
 
Deffeyes says while we wait for longer-term solutions like efficient cars and alternative fuels, immediate conservation steps like reducing driving speed and carpooling will be the most effective in making a dent in demand.
 
Lee says that even a 5 percent reduction in oil demand from the United States alone would have an effect on price.
 
"The problem in America is that we've had this Faustian bargain where between 1980 and 2003 we had low oil prices, so we benefited from this and built our lives around cheap oil,” he says. "We had 23 years of low energy prices, and now we're paying for it."