Five Media Trends in 2008
The Year in Deals
NBC has already gone further, becoming the first network to obtain second-by-second viewership data through a partnership with TiVo and its Stop/Watch ratings service. Announcing the partnership in late November, TiVo chief executive Tom Rogers said it was "a watershed moment for advertisers."
Radio is poised to make an even bigger leap forward next year when Arbitron deploys its Personal People Meter system. The meters are mobile-phone-size devices that a scientific sampling of consumers wear. They detect identification codes embedded in radio transmissions to automatically record what stations consumers listen to, replacing unreliable written diaries used in the past.
The magazine industry has also agreed to use technology to better measure and understand its audience. Since September, the three biggest magazine companies—Time Inc., Hearst Corp., and Condé Nast (publisher of Condé Nast Portfolio and Portfolio.com)—all agreed to join a new rapid-reporting system that provides circulation data in close to real time rather than just twice a year.
Time Inc.also relented to a demand by advertisers to guarantee a minimum circulation for each issue rather than an average circulation for six months' worth of magazines. Given Time Inc.'s industry-leading status, other publishers are expected to follow suit.
Information Will Be Free
Since the dawn of the internet, "content wants to be free" has been the rallying cry of digital evangelists. But those who wanted to charge for content could always point to a shining example: the Wall Street Journal, with its 1 million online subscribers and $65 million in digital subscription revenue.
That will all change in 2008. Rupert Murdoch, whose News Corp. recently completed its $5 billion acquisition of Dow Jones, plans to set WSJ.com free, judging from several fairly unequivocal public pronouncements.
Despite the short-term loss of subscription revenue, "long term, it's kind of a slam dunk," says Mike Vorhaus, managing director at the consulting firm Frank N. Magid Associates. The money that is made from selling ads that reach a much larger audience will more than make up for losses, he adds.
The New York Times had a similar epiphany in September, when it shut down TimesSelect, its premium content service. But business news seemed to be one place where online subscriptions could still be sold successfully.
The Journal's move, however, will change the economics for competitors such as the Financial Times, which also charges a fee. "If the Wall Street Journal goes free, I suspect [FT.com] will also do it," says John Morton, an independent newspaper-industry analyst in Silver Spring, Maryland.
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