Is Tech the Next Frontier for Buyouts?
The Most Dangerous Deal in America
Credit is tight and stock investors have rediscovered gravity. Now there's talk about a private equity bubble burst.
But buyouts still look sweet, according to a survey of 100 chief financial officers—they don't see a burst, they see buyout interest increasing over the next 12 months. Much of the action will be focused on the tech sector, long ignored by the buyout crowd as too risky, but seen as more attractive in the current market because it is not weighed down by debt. Not yet, anyway.
Three-quarters of the chief financial officers surveyed by executive search firm Tatum said they expect the number of companies seeking private equity to increase over the next year. The rest said they expect interest to remain the same. Nobody thought interest would flag, even in the wake of the subprime mortgage meltdown.
The biggest pending tech buyout, First Data Systems, is on track to close by the end of September, the company's chief executive insists. The $26 billion deal, fronted by Kohlberg, Kravis & Roberts, involves the world's largest credit card processor, a computer-intensive business.
Another pending deal, for telecommunications equiptment maker Avaya, is also likely to go through, at least judging from heavy stock purchases by company insiders; the stock was trading a buck and a half below the $17.50 offered in the $8.2 billion deal by private equity tech specialists Silver Lake and TPG Capital.
"Technology has entered the mainstream of private equity," TPG partner John Marren told Condé Nast Portfolio in a recent interview. The tech sector is especially ripe for buyouts now because its companies tend to carry so little debt, translating into lower debt-equity ratios in the final deal and, buyers hope, better credit terms.
Silicon Valley was built on venture capital and stock options. A corporate culture has evolved that turns up its nose at borrowing money, even though many established companies could increase returns on equity by reducing cash stockpiles and adding more debt. That includes Microsoft, Intel, Hewlett-Packard, and others. All could be candidates for private equity—if not for their huge market caps.
First, though, the private equity industry will have to prove itself with smaller deals. Private equity in tech hotspots like Silicon Valley has been a mostly local affair, with firms like Silver Lake and Francisco Partners leading the way.
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