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Trading Spaces

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While most economists were caught off guard by this year’s trading volatility, the modern exchange is capable as never before of weathering sudden big moves. New regulations make it easier to figure out the real value of what’s being traded. This transparency is essential in an instantaneous-trading environment, where an Enron’s value can be carefully manufactured over a period of years and then vaporized in a single catastrophic week. The Sarbanes-Oxley Act, for example, was intended to reveal and manage risk. But such regulations, in turn, create opportunities for markets with fewer rules.

Witness the London Stock Exchange’s aggressive pursuit of initial public offerings from companies in Asia. Last year, London became the world leader in I.P.O.’s. And while global markets were rocked in the summer’s subprime hysteria, Shanghai barely registered a blip. China’s vast emerging economy was big enough to absorb the blows, suggesting that the game is changing big-time. The future will belong to the market that can set up the biggest tent for investors who want to manage and chase risk. Having purchased Archipelago Holdings and Euronext, the NYSE Group considered excising “NY” from its name to emphasize a more global coverage. Many economists think that would have been absurd. “There will always be value in having the best reputation for risk management,” says Ev Ehrlich, former Commerce Department undersecretary. “New York is a brand, and the volatility of emerging markets will only enhance that brand as traders get burned in an unregulated environment.”

Yet stepping outside traditional regulations is emblematic of our volatile age. New wealth, much of it in private equity, is following risk and opportunity faster than new exchanges can pop into being. At the same time, companies in emerging markets are scrambling to gain access to mainstream capital, which has accelerated the trend toward multiple listings of stocks on exchanges all over the world. “Technology makes it cheaper and easier to do,” Ehrlich says. We may soon have one global market in which all buyers and sellers gather to purchase virtually any stock or commodity. There will be no single picture of that market. Even from space, you can see only one side of the earth at a time. That’s probably just a silly detail, but it’s no metaphor. Yet while no camera will ever be able to see the whole world at once, savvy global traders have to. Between the first open in New Zealand and the last close on the U.S. West Coast are 19 time zones of financial daylight. That leaves just five hours for uneasy dreams about what will happen tomorrow. Until someone opens an exchange in Samoa.


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