The National Football League would be left with few warm-weather venues if it follows through on a threat to avoid future Super Bowls at an open-air Sun Life Stadium, a South Florida Business Journal analysis has found.

That raises the question as to how much the NFL is bluffing as it floats the idea that up to $200 million in renovations are needed at the stadium, which has received $300 million in upgrades over the past few years.

The two other Super Bowl sites in Florida are also open-air stadiums, and the NFL has already rejected San Diego’s stadium, saying it, too, needs renovations. The league doesn’t have a team in Los Angeles anymore.

That leaves Phoenix, Houston, Dallas, and New Orleans as the only other warm-weather host cities for the big game in February.

There’s no doubt that the weather is a big factor. Northern venues—including Indianapolis, Minneapolis, and Detroit—have gotten rare nods as Super Bowl sites, usually when new stadiums are built. But the Big Easy and South Florida are tied for first place, with 10 games apiece.

Goodell Raises Issues

In December, NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell said the 23-year-old Miami Gardens stadium needs renovations in order to compete with newer venues for future Super Bowls. Upgrades would likely include a partial roof—to keep fans from getting drenched by rain, as they were during the 2007 Super Bowl—and seating closer to the field, a proposition that could cost more than $200 million and use taxpayer money for the privately owned facility.

Ultimately, it’s up to the NFL’s 32 team owners to decide which stadiums get the game, and there are only a handful of destinations on the shortlist, said Nicki Grossman, president and CEO of the Greater Fort Lauderdale Convention & Visitors Bureau and a South Florida Super Bowl XLIV Host Committee member. Owners typically pick the host destination based on warm temperatures and charm—and South Florida ranks high on both counts, she said.

“First of all, we don’t have a shabby stadium,” she said. “They want this game to be at a place that will be a positive experience for the fans, the players, and the owners.”

Dolphins Don’t Push Issue Hard

Miami Dolphins CEO Mike Dee said an upgraded stadium would not have that significant of an economic impact on his organization.

“From a Dolphins perspective, the upgrades aren’t necessary,” he said.

But, the benefits to the local economy from high-profile sporting events like the Super Bowl are significant, he added. This year’s Super Bowl could bring “north of $400 million” to the region, said Rodney Barreto, chairman of the host committee.

Some economists dispute that high figure, placing it at less than $100 million.