If that’s the standard regulators want met before agreeing to repayment of TARP funds, then BofA would need to raise about $6.83 billion in additional capital before repaying the $45 billion, according to SNL research. The bank already has raised about $40 billion in new capital this year.

SNL’s calculations assume that loan losses have peaked and BofA can cover its losses without dipping into reserves—an uncertain conclusion. But if economic conditions worsen and BofA taps its reserves to cover bad loans, that would hurt the bank’s capital ratios.

Plath says that’s one reason for BofA to delay repaying the entire TARP allocation. But he says if loan losses begin to decrease, then the bank will have plenty of earnings power to cover loan losses without using its reserves.

Some analysts think such calculations are moot. Rochdale Securities analyst Dick Bove believes BofA is “chained” to the government. In a recent research note, he says BofA is one of the richest companies in America, with more than $175 billion in cash, making the delay in paying back TARP a “conundrum.”

He predicts the government is trying to keep BofA in the program for a long period of time, collecting $2.9 billion in dividends each year and using its increased influence to remake the bank.

“The government apparently is saying no to a deal,” Bove wrote. “It may be evident to the politicians just how good they have it with this company. They can abuse it as much as they choose and get paid for doing so in the process.”

Speculation Hurting Stock

As Bove’s note floated around Wall Street on Monday, BofA’s stock price dropped as much as 7 percent. This week, questions about the bank’s future and its relationship with the government pushed down the share price to almost $15 after it had traded above $17 for much of the month.

Bove cites speculation on Wall Street that regulators will require BofA to raise $45 billion in additional capital before allowing it to pay back the TARP money. He says such a move would dilute the stock and be harmful to shareholders.

Still, some investors see the turmoil as a reason to buy BofA’s stock. Citigroup Inc. analyst Keith Horowitz writes in a research note that recent uncertainty makes the Charlotte bank a good buy.

“Given the ongoing CEO search, fear of a capital raise only adds to the uncertainty hitting the stock, which creates a very attractive entry point,” he says.

Plath suspects the first order of business for BofA’s next CEO will be to announce a repayment plan of half the bailout money. The motivation is obvious: It could possibly free the bank from bothersome new rules, especially the strict guidelines on pay that apply to the seven companies that received the most assistance.

But considering public outrage over last fall’s near collapse of the economy and the government’s intention to tighten the reins, it’s doubtful that repaying the TARP funds would truly free BofA from scrutiny.

Plath predicts BofA’s status as one of the nation’s “too-big-to-fail” banks—BofA controls 12 percent of the nation’s deposits—will keep it under heavy regulations for the foreseeable future.

“We have effectively nationalized the banking industry under the guise of too big to fail,” Plath says. “Even after Bank of America gets rid of Ken Lewis, remakes the board, pays back TARP—they’re not going to escape the onerous government regulations. It’s starting to look like there’s no way out.”