Ken Lewis: Hot or Not?
Shock to the System
Investment Bank, R.I.P.
Why Lehman Wasn't Saved
In an interview with Bank of America chief executive Ken Lewis on Monday, CNBC's Maria Bartiromo closed with this: "Congratulations once again for engineering a smart deal for your shareholders."
Those shareholders, however, aren't quite as enthusiastic about the deal as Bartiromo is. Bank of America shares fell as much as 20 percent following news that the bank agreed to buy Merrill Lynch for $50 billion in stock.
In fact, this is the second time this year that the market has doubted a Lewis-orchestrated deal. BofA's rescue of troubled mortgage lender Countrywide was met with more than a few raised eyebrows and "sell" orders.
Where Ken Lewis sees opportunity at a bargain price, others see costly and unnecessary risk-taking. This begs the question: Is Ken Lewis really dumb or really smart?
Soft-spoken with a Southern twang, Lewis appears to be an outsider among the adrenaline-fueled egos on Wall Street. In a day of headline grabbers, Lewis is almost the anti-Dick Fuld. And yet the Charlotte, North Carolina-based executive has emerged this year as one of Wall Street's most powerful players.
It will likely be many years before we can definitively conclude if the deals Lewis struck were winning gambles. Lewis' assertion that the mortgage market will eventually return and that Bank of America is poised to benefit from it is certainly true. But it remains to be seen whether or not its cleanup of the messy Countrywide business and the litigation that came with it will end up being worth the pain endured to acquire it.
As for the Merrill Lynch deal, there is evidence that Bartiromo may be justified in her fervency. Bank of America offered $29 per share, which is a 70 percent premium over Merrill's closing price on Friday. But Merrill's shares fell 36 percent last week, so the premium doesn't look so lofty in retrospect.
While Lewis admits he could have "rolled the dice" and negotiated a lower price for Merrill, he claims he chose not to because the long-term benefits of the acquisition were so overwhelming.
Perhaps Bank of America's peeved shareholders view that as a lack of gumption on Lewis' part. But some analysts argue that Lewis actually got a deal with his $29-per-share offer. Bernstein Research analyst Brad Hintz estimates that Merrill is probably worth $35 per share when you value of its BlackRock stake and vast wealth-management business. Citigroup analyst Prashant Bhatia estimates its worth at $40 per share.
Moreover, by combining Merrill's investment bank with Bank of America's existing operations, the Charlotte banking behemoth instantly skyrockets in the league tables for both debt and equity underwriting.
Sure, Lewis could have held out and watched as Merrill's shares fell after the Lehman implosion. But that might have opened the door to competitive bids, which Bank of America handily avoided during its Sunday-night dealmaking.
Perhaps Jack Flack said it best in parsing through the spin-doctored press release announcing the deal. Read between the lines, and this is what it says:
Adding Merrill Lynch will finally get us the respect we deserve.
They may deserve it, but the question is, will Wall Street give it to them?
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